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为有效提取锁固段本身破裂信息,本文提出了最小有效性震级确定方法.基于孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论以及板内与板间地震区分界原则,重新厘定了原台湾南投地震区边界,并重命名为台湾海峡地震区.从强震孕育周期界定与主震事件判识角度,分析了该地震区大震事件孕育过程,研判了其未来震情.结果表明:台湾海峡地震区已至少经历两轮孕育周期,是一个MS7.6~7.75级地震危险区;目前该区处于第3孕育周期,未来有大震发生.本文所得结论可供相关部门参考,以采取有效防震减灾措施.
In order to extract the fracture information of the locked section effectively, a method of determining the minimum effective magnitude is proposed in this paper.Based on the brittle fracture theory of the multi-locked section of the seismogenic fault and the principle of demarcation between the intraplate and the plate, Boundary and renamed the Taiwan Strait seismic zone.According to the definition of the geocentric cycles and the identification of the mainshock event, this paper analyzes the gestation process of the earthquake events and studies the future earthquake conditions.The results show that the seismic zones of the Taiwan Strait It is a MS7.6 ~ 7.75 earthquakes danger zone at least for two cycles of gestation, and the area is currently in the third gestation period and a major earthquake will occur in the future.The conclusions drawn in this paper can be used for reference by relevant departments to take effective earthquake disaster reduction measures.