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本文根据我国经济增速下行的不同阶段,将样本时期划分为三个区间,采用VAR模型探究房地产价格波动对金融稳定的影响。当经济增速处于下行时期,政策促进房地产市场发展时,房价波动对金融稳定产生正向影响;对房地产市场严格调控时,房价波动对金融稳定具有负向影响,但房价波动对金融稳定的贡献度较小。当经济增速处于平稳时期,政策促进房地产市场发展时,房价波动对金融稳定产生正向影响。为降低房价波动对金融稳定的影响,未来应摒弃房地产对冲经济下行的惯性,货币政策维持中性适时预调微调,加强房地产金融宏观审慎管理。
Based on the different stages of the economic growth in our country, this paper divides the sample period into three periods and uses VAR model to explore the impact of real estate price fluctuations on financial stability. When the economic growth is in the down period and the policies promote the development of the real estate market, the fluctuation of house prices has a positive impact on the financial stability. When the real estate market is strictly regulated, the fluctuation of house prices has a negative impact on financial stability, but the contribution of the fluctuation of house prices to financial stability Degree is small. When economic growth is in a stable period and policies promote the development of the real estate market, the fluctuation of house prices has a positive impact on financial stability. In order to reduce the impact of housing price volatility on financial stability, we should abandon the inertia of real estate hedging economic downturn in the future, monetary policy to maintain a neutral fine-tune the timely pre-adjustment, and strengthen the macroprudential prudential management of real estate finance.