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三峡翻坝运输江南公路是三峡坝区水陆联运的主要公路通道,服务于三峡坝区各种长期、应急或临时性翻坝运输需求,同时也是项目沿线地区内部及对外出行的重要交通线路。因其在区域运输网中的独特地位,其未来服务功能具备典型的多样性特点,交通需求特征迥异于一般公路项目,采用传统的交通量预测方法很难把握其未来交通需求的增长规律和分布特点。在江南公路交通量预测过程中,引入了分类预测法,并创造性地构建了基于出行意向的交通量分担模型、基于土地开发利用的新增交通量预测模型等,在诸多方面都进行了有价值的探索。
Turbocharged Three Gorges Dam Transport Jiangnan Highway is the main road channel for land and sea transport in the Three Gorges Dam area. It serves various long-term, emergency or temporary demand for dam overturning in the Three Gorges Dam. It is also an important transportation route for the interior and external travel along the project areas. Because of its unique position in the regional transport network, its future service function has the typical diversity characteristics. The traffic demand characteristics are quite different from the general highway projects. It is difficult to grasp the growth regularity and distribution of future traffic demand by using the traditional traffic volume forecasting method Features. In the process of forecasting the traffic volume of Jiangnan Highway, the classification forecasting method was introduced and the traffic load sharing model based on the travel intention was creatively constructed. The new traffic volume forecasting model based on land development and utilization was also made valuable in many aspects Explore.