论文部分内容阅读
断层或裂纹在其失稳破裂之前都要经历准静态的加速扩展过程。加速是失稳的一个必要条件。加速释放是成核在脆性层中的大地震的普遍前兆。且可将该加速过程简要地概括为地震释放速率比例于失稳破裂前剩余时间的负幂。基于这一原理,对1966年3月22日河北邢台Ms7.2级地震的前震序列进行了回顾性分析,表明序列中大的前震,特别是主震,其失稳破裂时间和震级可成功地被估算,但要求所测系数r2这极大。在主震时间的估算中,使其处于发展中的序列,所得误差可小于所用最后一个数据点与主震之间剩余时间的一半或更少。
The fault or crack undergoes the quasi-static acceleration and expansion process before its rupture. Acceleration is a necessary condition for instability. Accelerated release is a common precursor to large earthquakes that nucleate in a brittle layer. And this acceleration process can be briefly summarized as the rate of seismic release proportional to the negative exponent before the destabilizing rupture. Based on this principle, a retrospective analysis of the foreshock sequence of the Ms7.2 earthquake in Xingtai, Hebei on March 22, 1966 shows that the large foreshocks, especially the main shocks, can successfully rupture time and magnitude Is estimated, but requires that the measured coefficient r2 be extremely large. The mainshock time is estimated to be in a developing sequence and the resulting error can be less than half or less of the time remaining between the last data point used and the mainshock.