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提出了应用ARIMA乘积季节模型对大坝位移监测数据进行分析和预报的新方法,并给出了基于开源R语言建立乘积季节模型的方法步骤和关键技术。结合某大坝径向位移监测数据进行计算分析,结果表明:ARIMA乘积季节模型能较准确地预报大坝位移趋势,具有较高的预测精度。
A new method of analyzing and forecasting dam displacement monitoring data using ARIMA product seasonal model is proposed. The method steps and key techniques of building product seasonal model based on open source R language are given. Combined with the monitoring data of a dam’s radial displacement, the calculation results show that the seasonal model of ARIMA product can predict the dam displacement trend with high accuracy.