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经济增长的再平衡是当前中国领导层面临的首要经济问题。促进经济再平衡最重要的着力点在于金融系统的改革。而金融系统改革的当务之急并不是要引进复杂的金融工具,而是要减弱政府对存贷款利率依然较强的控制。利率扭曲的减弱,亦将有助于将过去十余年已经发展到不可持续的危险境地的住宅投资拉回到安全线之下。增加人民币汇率的弹性是另一个有助于中国经济实现消费主导增长模式的重要举措。所有这些政策,都将增加国内居民消费支出,而居民消费支出的增加是中期内维持中国经济增长速度的支柱。如果中国未能实现经济增长的再平衡,中国经济体内危险扭曲问题将会继续积累。
The rebalancing of economic growth is the primary economic issue facing the Chinese leadership at the moment. The most important focus of promoting economic rebalancing lies in the reform of the financial system. The pressing task of the financial system reform, however, is not to introduce complicated financial instruments but to weaken the government’s control over the deposit and lending rates. Weakening interest rates will also help bring residential investment that has been in unsustainable danger over the past decade or so under security lines. Increasing the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate is another important measure that will help China’s economy to achieve the dominant mode of consumption growth. All of these policies will increase the consumption expenditure of domestic residents, while the increase in resident consumption expenditure will be the mainstay of maintaining the growth rate of China’s economy in the medium term. If China fails to rebalance its economic growth, the problem of dangerous distortion in the Chinese economy will continue to accumulate.