应用库区多项形变观测资料 ,对克孜尔水库蓄水后出现的形变异常及诱发水库地震的危险性进行了研究。结果认为 :1穿过水库大坝的 F2 活断层在蓄水后出现水平和垂直形变的特大异常变化主要是前期水库施工开挖土石方、填筑土石方及水库蓄水引起地面负荷变化的综合效应所致 ;2克孜尔水库虽然存在诱发水库地震的潜在因素 ,但从库容、坝高、F2 活断层产状、地质构造背景、水文地质条件、岩性以及世界各国发生水库诱发地震的成因、特点等多方面综合分析表明 ,克孜尔水库不具备发生水库诱发地震的充分条件 ;3由库区各项形变观测资料分析表明 ,库区地壳形变已由施工—蓄水初期时的反向异常变化恢复到了施工蓄水前的正常变化状态 ,各种受力因素经过调整达到了新的平衡 ,已进入相对稳定的继承性运动期 ,因此今后因蓄水诱发水库地震的可能性不大 Based on a number of deformation observation data in the reservoir area, the deformation anomalies that occur after the water storage in Kizil Reservoir and the risk of induced reservoir earthquakes are studied. The results show that: 1) The large anomalous changes of horizontal and vertical deformation of F2 active fault crossing the reservoir dam mainly result from the comprehensive effect of the ground load changes caused by the early earthwork excavation, earthwork filling and reservoir storage Although there are potential factors inducing reservoir earthquakes in 2 Kizils reservoirs, from the aspects of reservoir capacity, dam height, the occurrence of F2 active fault, geological structure, hydrogeological conditions, lithology and the causes of reservoir induced earthquakes in various countries in the world The comprehensive analysis shows that the Kizil reservoir does not have sufficient conditions for reservoir-induced earthquakes. 3 The analysis of various deformation observation data in the reservoir area shows that the crustal deformation in the reservoir area has been changed from the reverse anomaly at the initial stage of construction and storage Restored to the normal state before the construction of water storage, various stress factors adjusted to reach a new balance, has entered a relatively stable period of inheritance movement, so future reservoir-induced water reservoir earthquake is unlikely