论文部分内容阅读
在突发公共事件应急管理中要解决的一个重要问题是对其风险的评估和管理,需要设计风险减缓备选方案并对之进行评价,制定决策。就目前风险减缓方案评估及投资决策制定方面的研究成果来看,绝大部分都是直接分析各备选方案对灾难性事件总体风险的缩减效果。而不同类别的减灾方案达成总体风险减缓的机理和途径是不同的,故更为合理的做法应是基于各类减灾方案实现总体风险减缓的不同机理区别对待。在此基础上,本文尝试将不同类减灾方案综合考虑,形成各个方案组合,以每个组合为整体评价其综合减灾效果。由于风险事件本身结果的模糊性以及风险事件出现概率的模糊性,本文利用模糊集理论方法制定风险减缓决策,并就此开展了实证分析。
An important issue to be solved in the emergency management of public emergencies is to assess and manage its risks. It needs to design and evaluate risk mitigation options and make decisions. In the current research on risk mitigation assessment and investment decision-making, the vast majority directly analyze the curtailment effect of each alternative on the overall risk of catastrophic events. Different approaches and approaches to achieve overall risk mitigation for different types of DRRs are different. Therefore, a more reasonable approach should be based on the differential treatment of the different mechanisms by which DRRs can mitigate the overall risk mitigation. On this basis, this paper attempts to consider different types of disaster mitigation programs and form various program combinations, and evaluate their comprehensive disaster mitigation effects by taking each combination as a whole. Due to the fuzziness of the result of the risk event itself and the fuzziness of the probability of occurrence of the risk event, this paper uses the fuzzy set theory method to make risk mitigation decision and carries out empirical analysis.