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本文使用2004—2011年上市银行的动态面板数据模型对银行资本缓冲和经济周期的关系以及其他相关因素进行分析。研究结果表明,我国的银行体系总体资本缓冲呈现逆周期效应,其中国有控股银行的资本缓冲是逆周期的,而股份制银行的资本缓冲却是顺周期的。建立市场化资本补充的长效机制、根据经济周期动态管理资本缓冲和逆周期资本框架在我国银行所有制不同情况下分类实施是未来我国监管当局和商业银行需重点研究的方向。
This paper uses the dynamic panel data model of listed banks from 2004 to 2011 to analyze the relationship between bank capital buffer and business cycle and other related factors. The results show that the overall capital buffer of China’s banking system presents a counter-cyclical effect. Capital buffers of state-controlled banks are counter-cyclical, while the capital buffer of joint-stock banks is pro-cyclical. The establishment of a long-term mechanism of market-based capital replenishment and the dynamic management of capital buffers and counter-cyclical capital frameworks in accordance with the economic cycle in different circumstances of bank ownership in our country are the major directions for the regulatory authorities and commercial banks in our country to study in the future.