过去数十年,能源品种此消彼长。绿色、清洁、低碳的能源转型已成为世界潮流,不可阻挡。能源转型过程中,优质化石能源、可再生能源蓬勃发展,“减煤”趋势显而易见,反映出全球能源系统的不断优化与进步。纵观发达国家能源总量和能源结构的变迁与转型的轨迹,表现出一定的规律性。其一,当一个国家第二产业的GDP比重出现明显下降十年之后,能源消费增速会开始明显下降。比如,德国和日本,这两个国家差不多是在20世纪70年代初、中期,第二产业占GDP的比重开始明显下 Over the past few decades, the energy variety has shrunk. Green, clean, low-carbon energy transformation has become the world trend, irresistible. In the process of energy transformation, high-quality fossil energy and renewable energy boomed. The trend of “coal reduction” is obvious, which reflects the continuous optimization and progress of the global energy system. Throughout the developed countries, the total amount of energy and energy structure changes and the trajectory of transition, showing a certain regularity. First, when the proportion of the GDP of a country’s secondary industry drops significantly after ten years, the growth rate of energy consumption will start to drop significantly. For example, Germany and Japan, the two countries almost at the beginning of the 1970s, the middle and secondary industries accounted for the proportion of GDP began to noticeably