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目的探讨清远市手足口病发病与气象因素的关系,为手足口病防控提供科学依据。方法收集2009年1月1日—2013年12月31日清远市疾病监测信息报告管理系统报告的每日手足口病病例数,同时收集清远市同期每日气象资料,包括日平均风速、日平均气温、日累计降雨量、相对湿度和平均气压等,利用Poisson分布的广义相加模型拟合手足口病发病与气象因素的关系。结果 2009—2013年清远市共报告41 587例手足口病病例,日平均气温(≥27.20℃)、日平均风速(<1.49 m/s)、日累计降雨量(≥0.51 mm)、相对湿度和日平均气压(<991.73 k Pa)是手足口病发病的危险因素;日平均风速(≥1.49 m/s)和日平均气压(≥991.73 k Pa)是手足口病发病的保护因素。结论清远地区短期气候因素是手足口病发病的重要影响因素。
Objective To explore the relationship between the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease and meteorological factors in Qingyuan and to provide a scientific basis for prevention and control of hand-foot-mouth disease. Methods The daily number of hand-foot-mouth disease cases reported in the Disease Surveillance Information Reporting Management System of Qingyuan from January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2013 were collected. Daily meteorological data of Qingyuan City, including daily average wind speed, daily average Temperature, daily cumulative rainfall, relative humidity and mean pressure, the generalized additive model of Poisson distribution was used to fit the relationship between hand-foot-mouth disease and weather factors. Results A total of 41 587 HFMD cases were reported in Qingyuan from 2009 to 2013. The average daily temperature (≥27.20 ℃), daily average wind speed (<1.49 m / s), daily cumulative rainfall (≥0.51 mm), relative humidity and Daily mean air pressure (<991.73 kPa) is a risk factor for HFMD. Daily average wind speed (≥1.49 m / s) and mean daily air pressure (≥991.73 kPa) are the protective factors of HFMD. Conclusion Short-term climatic factors in Qingyuan area are the important influencing factors of HFMD.