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通过对近10 a来榆林地区塌陷地震的时间序列与空间分布规律进行分析,认为该类地震的发生与社会发展规律具有高度的相关性,因此,将塌陷地震作为人为地震来研究,从社会层面剖析其发生原因,选取影响资源型城市发展的社会、经济、资源、环境各方面的34个指标与评价目标地震发生年频次进行相关性分析,然后建立多元线性回归模型,并进行了检验与预测,得出以下结论:(1)榆林地区的塌陷地震均为采空区塌陷地震,属于人为发生地震,与构造地震无关,此类地震的发生特点可以概括为八个字“先塌后震,震而复塌”。(2)榆林地区的采空区塌陷地震具有“频发性、连发性、季发性”的特征,主要分布于榆阳区煤矿区和神府煤矿区,其中神府煤矿区发生尤为频繁。(3)预测模型得出最佳拟合的10个自变量,模型检验效果显著。
By analyzing the time series and spatial distribution law of collapse in Yulin area in recent 10 years, it is considered that the occurrence of such earthquakes is highly correlated with the law of social development. Therefore, the study of collapse earthquake as a man-made earthquake, from the social level Analyze the causes, select the 34 indicators that affect the development of resource-based cities in all aspects of society, economy, resources and environment, and conduct correlation analysis on annual frequency of earthquake occurrence, and then establish multivariate linear regression model and test and forecast , We can draw the following conclusions: (1) The collapse of Yulin area are all subsidence earthquakes, belonging to man-made earthquakes, which have nothing to do with structural earthquakes. The occurrence characteristics of such earthquakes can be summarized as “ , Earthquake collapsed ”. (2) The subsidence earthquakes in Yulin area are characterized by “frequent, continuous and seasonal” features, mainly distributed in the coal mining areas of Yuyang and Shenfu coal mines, in which the Shenfu coal mining area occurred Especially frequent. (3) The predictive model obtained the best fit of the 10 independent variables, the model test results were significant.