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实现土地集约利用水平提高与土地利用碳减排的双赢,是我国土地管理者的期望。先是测算了湖北省3个中心城市1996~2010年的土地集约利用水平和土地利用碳排放值,对两者关系进行了理论分析与假定,最后通过协整检验、Granger因果关系检验和脉冲响应函数的计量方法验证了理论分析。结果表明:土地集约利用水平与土地利用碳排放存在长期均衡关系。在土地利用资本集约阶段,土地集约利用增加作为碳源的建设用地碳排放量效果明显大于保育农用地等碳汇的碳吸收量效果;不同土地集约利用阶段的土地集约利用水平和土地利用碳排放的关系呈动态变化,技术进步将成为改变两者正相关关系的关键;在土地利用的资本集约阶段,提高土地集约利用水平会促进土地利用碳排放增加,但随着城市经济发展转型及产业集聚特征的变化,土地集约利用水平的提高对碳排放的正向影响将减弱。最后,根据研究结果提出了中心城市的土地低碳集约利用策略。
Achieving a win-win situation of raising the level of intensive land use and land use carbon emission reduction is the expectation of our land managers. Firstly, the land intensive use level and the land use carbon emission value of three central cities in Hubei Province from 1996 to 2010 were measured, the relationship between the two was theoretically analyzed and assumptions, and finally the cointegration test, Granger causality test and impulse response function The measurement method verified the theoretical analysis. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the level of intensive land use and carbon emissions from land use. In the stage of intensive land use, the effect of intensified land use on carbon emissions from construction land use as carbon source is obviously greater than that on carbon land used for conservation of agricultural land. The intensive land use and land use carbon emissions , The technological progress will be the key to change the positive correlation between the two. In the phase of capital intensive land use, increasing the intensive land use will promote the increase of land use carbon emissions. However, with the urban economic development and industrial agglomeration Changes in features, the positive impact of increased levels of intensive land use on carbon emissions will be weakened. Finally, according to the research results, the strategy of low-carbon intensive land use in central cities is proposed.