一、宏观管理有待改革和加强我完全同意张卓元老师所讲的,即经济发展实效在很大程度上取决于改革能否取得实质性进展这一观点。关于宏观经济管理的改革,我认为必须注意两方面的问题:一是政企分开问题,必须进一步转变政府职能;二是部门间的协调问题,应当更好地协调各种宏观经济政策的制订和实施工作。二、1997年的经济形势:基本稳定但要有风险意识1997年的经济发展将呈基本稳定的态势,但也要有风险意识,其中包括:(1)金融风险,金融部门一个突出问题是,居民储蓄存款迅速上升,但与此同时,银行的备付率却明显下降,银行抗风险的能力较弱。(2)农业风险,粮食生产在经过连续两年的增长之后,明年是否会出现停滞甚至减产?(3)香港回归问题,要警惕外国资本在香港回归前后制定不安全因素,冲击香港资本 I. Macroeconomic Management Needs to be Reformed and Strengthened I fully agree with what Teacher Zhang Zhuoyuan said that the actual effectiveness of economic development depends to a large extent on the point whether the reform can make substantive progress. With regard to the reform of macroeconomic management, I think we must pay attention to two issues: First, separating government from enterprise, we must further transform the functions of government; second, we should coordinate the development of various macroeconomic policies and coordination among different departments; Implementation work. II. Economic Situation in 1997: Stable but Necessary to Have Awareness of Risk The economic development in 1997 will be basically stable but risk-aware. These include: (1) Financial risks, a prominent issue in the financial sector, Household savings deposits rose rapidly, but at the same time, the bank’s reserve ratio dropped significantly, and the bank’s ability to resist risks was weak. (2) Agricultural risk, will food production stagnate or even reduce next year after its growth for two consecutive years? (3) Hong Kong’s return to China should be wary of instability created by foreign capitals before and after Hong Kong’s reversion, impacting Hong Kong’s capital