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利用温度适宜度模型计算了1961—2015年东北地区单季稻各生育阶段温度适宜度,并对其平均值、变异系数及时空分布和变化特征进行了分析。结果表明:东北地区单季稻分蘖、孕穗和抽穗期温度适宜度高且变异系数小,而播种和出苗期则相反;根据各站点55年平均适宜度大小,将东北单季稻主产区划为适宜度高、中、低3个区,且适宜度高低在空间上存在较明显的南北差异,总体随纬度的增加而减小;1961—2015年单季稻各生育阶段温度适宜度均表现为先下降后上升、总体升高的趋势,播种-出苗、乳熟-成熟阶段升高趋势最为明显(尤其在20世纪90年代中期以后);根据东北地区各站点温度适宜度变化倾向率,将东北地区单季稻主产区分为适宜度强增长、次增长和弱增长区,强增长区主要位于温度低适宜区,未来东北地区单季稻温度适宜度的地域性差异将减小,种植环境将趋于平均和优化。
The temperature suitability of single cropping rice in Northeast China from 1961 to 2015 was calculated using the temperature suitability model, and its average value, coefficient of variation, spatio-temporal distribution and variation characteristics were analyzed. The results showed that the temperature of tillering, booting and heading stages of single cropping rice in Northeast China was high and the coefficient of variation was small, while the sowing and emergence stages were the opposite. According to the average annual 55 years’ suitability, the main producing areas of single cropping rice in Northeast China were characterized by high suitability, Middle and low areas, and there is obvious spatial difference between North and South in the degree of suitability, which generally decreases with the increase of latitude. From 1961 to 2015, the temperature suitability of single-cropping rice at all growth stages decreased first and then increased, (Especially in the mid-1990s). According to the change tendency of temperature suitability at each site in Northeast China, the main producing areas of single-cropping rice in Northeast China were divided into With strong growth, sub-growth and weak growth areas, the strong growth areas are mainly located in the low-temperature suitable area. The regional differences in the temperature suitability of single-cropped rice in the future will decrease, and the planting environment will be averaged and optimized.