论文部分内容阅读
德尔菲法技术预见准确性和可靠性低有两大原因:一是专家的认知偏差或有限理性,二是技术发展不确定性水平高。针对第二个原因,本文提出在德尔菲法技术预见后引入技术环境监测法。技术环境监测法的作用是监测德尔菲法专家预见时基于假设和预见结果的早期迹象是否出现,及时确认或修正专家前期的预见结果,从而提高技术预见的可靠性。
Delphi method foreseen the accuracy and reliability of low there are two main reasons: First, the cognitive bias or limited rationality of experts, the second is the high level of technical development uncertainty. For the second reason, this paper proposes the introduction of technical environmental monitoring after the foreseeable Delphi technology. The role of technical environmental monitoring is to monitor whether early signs of hypothetical and predictive outcomes are foreseen by Delphi experts, and to confirm or correct the foreseeable results of prior experts in time to improve the reliability of the technical foresight.