灾害是事物正常发展过程中的一种异常突变现象。如果说人们现在已把事物正常发展过程研究得很清楚，既合成因机制的讨论，又有定量的计算公式表达的话，那么异常突变则还停留在定性讨论阶段，特别是涉及到灾害的预报问题，人们还往往为之长叹。大震预报和巨大气象灾害的预报就 Disaster is an abnormal mutation in the normal development of things. If people now have a clear study of the normal course of things, both synthetic mechanism for discussion, and a quantitative formula, then the abnormal mutation is still in the qualitative discussion stage, especially in relation to disaster prediction problems , People often often sigh. Prediction of large earthquakes and mega-meteorological disasters