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构建了中国铜矿资源可持续供应评价指标体系,采用层次分析法和主成分分析法来确定各个指标的权重。计算出了系统中各年份的安全度,参考各年份的安全度及关联序,用灰色关联分析法构建理性的参考数列,确定历史年份的警情。当历史年份出现警情时,通过区分正、负向指标,并用各指标与表观消费量的增长率对比的方法来追踪警源,以理性参考数列为基准,来进行未来年份的理性预测,同时对模型进行检验;用K均值聚类方法确定未来年份警情、警源的界限值,进行未来年份警情的确定及警源的追踪。
The evaluation index system of sustainable supply of copper resources in China is constructed, and the analytic hierarchy process and principal component analysis are used to determine the weight of each index. The safety of each year in the system is calculated. With reference to the degree of safety and related sequence in each year, a gray relational analysis method is used to construct a rational reference sequence to determine the police intelligence in historical years. When the police intelligence appeared in the historical years, the author made a rational prediction of the future years by distinguishing the positive and negative indicators, comparing the indicators with the growth rate of the apparent consumption to track the police source, using the rational reference series as the reference, At the same time, the model is tested. K-means clustering method is used to determine the thresholds of police intelligence and police sources in future years, and to determine the police intelligence and track the police sources in the coming years.