道路交通事故每年都给我国带来了巨大的人员伤亡和经济损失,如何预防交通事故已成为公安和交通部门亟待解决的问题。在灰色预测理论与方法中,利用累加生成和微分方程描述的GM(1,1)灰色模型,在一定预测时段内具有良好的预测精度和实用性,但对于中长期的预测,其预测值与统计值存在较大的误差,故从模型构造上分析其存在的不足,可为该模型的改进指出方向。 Every year, road traffic accidents have brought huge casualties and economic losses to our country. How to prevent traffic accidents has become an urgent problem for public security and transportation departments. In the gray prediction theory and method, the GM (1,1) gray model described by the cumulative generation and differential equations has good prediction accuracy and practicability in a certain prediction period. However, for the medium-long term prediction, the prediction value There is a big error in the statistical value, so analyzing the deficiency of its existence from the model construction can point out the direction for the improvement of this model.