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中国劳动力成本低的优势正慢慢消失,一些美国制造商开始转往越南。不但如此,中国对外国公司的吸引力也逐步下降,事实上,中国所有的成本都在快速上升。伴随着其他一些无形但非常重要的因素,中国不再是设厂的理想之地。我经常去中国,以下是我观察到的一些现象:
白领(办公室职员)的生产力非常低,尤其是在国企和政府机构。中国关注蓝领生产力是正确的,但却忽略了白领生产力这一问题,特别是中资企业和国企。如这个问题不解决,中国的整体成本与其他国家相比就会上升。因此,与西方国家相比,中国的公共部门甚至拖了增长的后腿。
住房成本的高昂(甚至比美国还要高)令人难以置信。当然这一现象主要发生在上海和北京这样的大城市,但住房价格和租金太高,外国就不愿意派驻员工到中国来。
产品质量和安全的成本远高于西方国家。如那些通常被认为是安全食品(婴儿奶粉和维他命)的购买成本要比美国高得多。
污染问题也阻碍了外国人来中国,即输入外来人才的成本也提高了。
中美时差是一个看不见但却是一个重要的成本因素,因在两地间频繁往来,无疑让人心力交瘁,无形中提高了在中国做生意的成本。当中国的劳动力成本较低时,西方会接受这一点,但劳动力成本上升时,就很难再接受了。
中西方之间的距离提高了货运的成本,物流更为困难。对美国来说,在墨西哥生产更为简便,因工厂离得近,劳动力成本也不高。
语言差异也提高了工作成本,同样在劳动力成本较低时,这一因素是可接纳的,但如成本攀升,那么中国相较于印度这样的国家,吸引力就下降了。
有人说目前越南将会取代中国,成为西方制造业新的落脚点。或许从短期看的确如此,然而越南与中国有很多相似的不利之处,如语言、距离、时差和日益严重的污染等。我认为,中国在设厂方面遇到的真正竞争来自于美国和东欧国家,特别是美国。如在美国生产,那导致中国不再有吸引力的劣势就不成为问题。东欧国家也会有诸如语言和不同文化体制的问题。
在美国,劳动力成本会更高,但制造业和白领职员的生产力也更高,因此成本的差异就消失了。而且住房和租金的成本更低,也不存在时差或距离问题。美国公司也可在墨西哥设厂,尽管那里充斥着犯罪问题,但美国公司知道怎么应付。因此美国公司虽把目光投向越南,但大部分公司还是会将工厂重新放回美国或墨西哥。美国是新的低成本制造地,而中国已不再是了。时代已经改变,中国现在必须面对新的现实,即从制造业的角度看,中国将是一个高成本国家。
关于中国需要更多创新的讨论由来已久,事实上,中国正变得更具创新性,但在短期内步伐还不够快。中国需要一些行动来解决高成本制造这一问题。中国人是非常务实和具有适应能力的。中国在一些地方早就着手改变,但在某些领域仍需要有果断的行动。我认为,中国需要做的是:
语言:让年轻人在学校开始学英语,随着他们的日渐成长并走向领导岗位,好处将逐步显现。
兼并和收购海外公司:中国对此表现得很积极,但应建立起我所说的“并购机器”,这在本刊上一期的专栏中曾提过。
质量:中国公司在质量方面越来越严格,但更需要关注安全性,应采取更为系统化的监管。
在某些领域中国严重滞后,除非得到解决,否则中国不可能在竞争力上有所突破。我认为,在以下四方面需大力改变:
1、在美国建立中国的工厂:这看上去困难,且会导致中国的失业率上升。但减少了生产成本之后,将增强竞争力。从长期看,中国别无选择,正如日本和欧洲公司那样,只能在美国设立工厂。
2、让公司领导体制更开放:中国公司层级化严重。大部分公司缺少企业文化,职位低的人因害怕与上司发生冲突而不会提出自己的建议。航空业里人所周知的是,在亚洲航班的驾驶室里,职位较低的副驾驶通常不敢告诉机长自己有什么误操作。中国的很多公司也有类似问题,特别是那些较为传统的公司。应在内部设立更多的领导培训课程或将领导职位的接班人送到学校培养。这将加快必要的改变,让竞争力得到长期改善。
3、提高白领员工的生产力:利用电脑来执行办公室任务,如成组复印、团队管理、部门间协作等。这需要引入能完成任务和协作的一套系统。
4、关注公共部门而不仅是私营部门:中国已朝这个方向发展了,如引入经济附加值(EVA)来核算国有企业。但国有企业的效率依然低下,增加了很多成本,包括劳动力成本。既然国有企业在中国经济中占有很大的比重,故解决这一问题至关重要。
The Chinese labor cost advantage is slowly disappearing; Some U.S. manufacturers have begun to shift to Vietnam. What happens to China now? Can it keep growing? Will foreign companies go to other countries like Vietnam?
The first thing we must understand that it is not just China’s labor costs that are rising and making China a less attractive place for foreign companies to work in. All Chinese costs are rising and very rapidly. This factor, coupled with some other more intangible but nonetheless important factors, are starting to make China look somewhat unattractive as a place to locate factories. A few observations based on my frequent visits to China:
White-Collar (office worker) productivity is very low, particularly in SOEs and government. China has focused, correctly, on blue -collar productivity, that is efficiency in manufacturing and in the supply chain. It has been very successful in this area. But it has generally ignored the problem of white-collar productivity, particularly in Chinese-owned companies and SOEs. Until this is fixed China’s costs overall will rise compared to other countries. The public sector is even more of a drag on growth than it is in other Western countries due to this factor.
Housing costs are incredibly high, significantly higher than even in the US. Of course that is mostly the cities like Shanghai and Beijing, but housing and rent are becoming a major reason for overseas countries not to locate their employees in China.
The cost of product quality and safety is much higher in China than in the West; for example the cost of buying foods that are considered safe such as baby powder and vitamins is much higher than in the US
Pollution is a major barrier to attracting foreign citizens to China so this pushes up costs of imported talent.
The time difference between China and the US and Europe is an invisible but major cost because it means that people have to work around theclock which drives fatigue for people who have to communicate frequently between the two regions. This drives up costs of doing business in China; when labor costs in China were low, Western countries would accept this. Now that labor costs are narrowing significantly it will become much less acceptable.
The distance between China and the West: this drives up cost of freight and makes logistics more difficult. For the US it is much easier to manufacture in Mexico where labor costs are low but the factories are near.
The language difference: the difficulty and different-ness of working in the Chinese language also drives up costs; again when labor costs were low this was acceptable but with labor costs much higher, this is also significantly reduces the attractiveness of China as compared to say, India.
The talk now is that Vietnam will replace China as the new location of Western manufacturing. Maybe it is, but only in the short-term because Vietnam also has many of the same disadvantages as China. These include language, distance, time difference and rising pollution.
I think the real competition for China to locate manufacturing is the US and the East European countries. The US in particular is major competition since all of the disadvantages that make China less attractive that I have mentioned above do not apply if the manufacturing is done in the US. Eastern Europe suffers from problems such as language and different cultural systems. In the US the culture is the same all over.
In the US labor costs are higher but productivity of both manufacturing and office workers is much higher so the cost difference is starting toi disappear. But housing and rental costs are much lower, and there is no time difference or distance problem. American companies can still locate manufacturing in Mexico. While Mexico has a major disadvantage in its major crime problem, US companies know how to deal with this.
So my feeling is that US companies will look at Vietnam but most will end up locating manufacturing back in the US, supported by Mexico. The US is the new low-cost manufacturing location. China will never be the low-cost location again. That time has passed. China must now face the future based on the new reality that it has become a high-cost country from a manufacturing perspective.
There has been much discussion about China needing to become more innovative. In fact it is becoming more innovative. But it is not happening fast enough to counter the impact of the factors I have talked about above in the short-term. In the shorter-term it needs to do a number of things to help address the problem that it has become a high-cost and less attractive place to locate manufacturing.
The Chinese people are very pragmatic and adaptable. China will make the changes but it needs to take determined action now in certain areas. In other areas it is already doing the right things.
Language: young people are already learning English at school; this is a major asset and its beneficial impact will only I increase as these young people move into leadership positions as they get older.
Mergers and acquisitions of overseas companies; China is acting aggressively on this; however it needs to build companies that I call “acquisition machines”, whom I have written about earlier this year in this magazine.
Quality: Chinese companies are also moving on this area strongly; but there needs to be even more focus on safety and quality with more systematic policing of quality problems in products.
But in certain areas, China is lagging badly and unless these areas are addressed, China will not be able to address the problem of competitiveness that this article has identified. I see four areas that need much more attention and even radical change.
1.Locate Chinese manufacturing in the US: this might seem to be a problem because it will apparently lead to the loss of jobs in China. But by reducing the costs of production it will lead to lower product costs and greater Chinese competiveness. In the long-run China will have no alternative to doing this, just as Japan and the European companies had no alternative to locating production in factories they built in the US.
2.Make leadership systems in companies more open: Chinese companies are very hierarchical. Most companies lack the culture that routinely encourages junior people to make their own suggestions because of the danger that they contradict a senior person. In the aviation industry it is well-known that the leadership culture in cockpits of Asian airlines has directly led to air crashes when a junior co-pilot has been too scared to tell the plane’s Captain that he is doing something wrong or dangerous. China has a similar problem in many of its companies, particularly those that are more traditional. It needs to address this issue. Companies can do this by conducting more leadership courses either internally or sending their emerging leaders to institutions that conduct leadership training. This will speed up necessary change and lead to a long-term improvement in competitiveness.
3.Focus on improving white-collar worker productivity; this can be done by using computers more for office tasks for example such as group faxing, team management, inter-office collaboration and so on. This will require introduction of systems that address office tasks and company collaboration.
4.Focus on the public, not just the private sector: China is already moving in this direction, for example through introducing EVA (Economic Value-Added) accounting to SOEs. But SOEs are still very inefficient and this increases overall Chinese costs, including labor costs. Since the SOEs are such a large part of the Chinese economy, addressing this issue is crucial.
白领(办公室职员)的生产力非常低,尤其是在国企和政府机构。中国关注蓝领生产力是正确的,但却忽略了白领生产力这一问题,特别是中资企业和国企。如这个问题不解决,中国的整体成本与其他国家相比就会上升。因此,与西方国家相比,中国的公共部门甚至拖了增长的后腿。
住房成本的高昂(甚至比美国还要高)令人难以置信。当然这一现象主要发生在上海和北京这样的大城市,但住房价格和租金太高,外国就不愿意派驻员工到中国来。
产品质量和安全的成本远高于西方国家。如那些通常被认为是安全食品(婴儿奶粉和维他命)的购买成本要比美国高得多。
污染问题也阻碍了外国人来中国,即输入外来人才的成本也提高了。
中美时差是一个看不见但却是一个重要的成本因素,因在两地间频繁往来,无疑让人心力交瘁,无形中提高了在中国做生意的成本。当中国的劳动力成本较低时,西方会接受这一点,但劳动力成本上升时,就很难再接受了。
中西方之间的距离提高了货运的成本,物流更为困难。对美国来说,在墨西哥生产更为简便,因工厂离得近,劳动力成本也不高。
语言差异也提高了工作成本,同样在劳动力成本较低时,这一因素是可接纳的,但如成本攀升,那么中国相较于印度这样的国家,吸引力就下降了。
有人说目前越南将会取代中国,成为西方制造业新的落脚点。或许从短期看的确如此,然而越南与中国有很多相似的不利之处,如语言、距离、时差和日益严重的污染等。我认为,中国在设厂方面遇到的真正竞争来自于美国和东欧国家,特别是美国。如在美国生产,那导致中国不再有吸引力的劣势就不成为问题。东欧国家也会有诸如语言和不同文化体制的问题。
在美国,劳动力成本会更高,但制造业和白领职员的生产力也更高,因此成本的差异就消失了。而且住房和租金的成本更低,也不存在时差或距离问题。美国公司也可在墨西哥设厂,尽管那里充斥着犯罪问题,但美国公司知道怎么应付。因此美国公司虽把目光投向越南,但大部分公司还是会将工厂重新放回美国或墨西哥。美国是新的低成本制造地,而中国已不再是了。时代已经改变,中国现在必须面对新的现实,即从制造业的角度看,中国将是一个高成本国家。
关于中国需要更多创新的讨论由来已久,事实上,中国正变得更具创新性,但在短期内步伐还不够快。中国需要一些行动来解决高成本制造这一问题。中国人是非常务实和具有适应能力的。中国在一些地方早就着手改变,但在某些领域仍需要有果断的行动。我认为,中国需要做的是:
语言:让年轻人在学校开始学英语,随着他们的日渐成长并走向领导岗位,好处将逐步显现。
兼并和收购海外公司:中国对此表现得很积极,但应建立起我所说的“并购机器”,这在本刊上一期的专栏中曾提过。
质量:中国公司在质量方面越来越严格,但更需要关注安全性,应采取更为系统化的监管。
在某些领域中国严重滞后,除非得到解决,否则中国不可能在竞争力上有所突破。我认为,在以下四方面需大力改变:
1、在美国建立中国的工厂:这看上去困难,且会导致中国的失业率上升。但减少了生产成本之后,将增强竞争力。从长期看,中国别无选择,正如日本和欧洲公司那样,只能在美国设立工厂。
2、让公司领导体制更开放:中国公司层级化严重。大部分公司缺少企业文化,职位低的人因害怕与上司发生冲突而不会提出自己的建议。航空业里人所周知的是,在亚洲航班的驾驶室里,职位较低的副驾驶通常不敢告诉机长自己有什么误操作。中国的很多公司也有类似问题,特别是那些较为传统的公司。应在内部设立更多的领导培训课程或将领导职位的接班人送到学校培养。这将加快必要的改变,让竞争力得到长期改善。
3、提高白领员工的生产力:利用电脑来执行办公室任务,如成组复印、团队管理、部门间协作等。这需要引入能完成任务和协作的一套系统。
4、关注公共部门而不仅是私营部门:中国已朝这个方向发展了,如引入经济附加值(EVA)来核算国有企业。但国有企业的效率依然低下,增加了很多成本,包括劳动力成本。既然国有企业在中国经济中占有很大的比重,故解决这一问题至关重要。
The Chinese labor cost advantage is slowly disappearing; Some U.S. manufacturers have begun to shift to Vietnam. What happens to China now? Can it keep growing? Will foreign companies go to other countries like Vietnam?
The first thing we must understand that it is not just China’s labor costs that are rising and making China a less attractive place for foreign companies to work in. All Chinese costs are rising and very rapidly. This factor, coupled with some other more intangible but nonetheless important factors, are starting to make China look somewhat unattractive as a place to locate factories. A few observations based on my frequent visits to China:
White-Collar (office worker) productivity is very low, particularly in SOEs and government. China has focused, correctly, on blue -collar productivity, that is efficiency in manufacturing and in the supply chain. It has been very successful in this area. But it has generally ignored the problem of white-collar productivity, particularly in Chinese-owned companies and SOEs. Until this is fixed China’s costs overall will rise compared to other countries. The public sector is even more of a drag on growth than it is in other Western countries due to this factor.
Housing costs are incredibly high, significantly higher than even in the US. Of course that is mostly the cities like Shanghai and Beijing, but housing and rent are becoming a major reason for overseas countries not to locate their employees in China.
The cost of product quality and safety is much higher in China than in the West; for example the cost of buying foods that are considered safe such as baby powder and vitamins is much higher than in the US
Pollution is a major barrier to attracting foreign citizens to China so this pushes up costs of imported talent.
The time difference between China and the US and Europe is an invisible but major cost because it means that people have to work around theclock which drives fatigue for people who have to communicate frequently between the two regions. This drives up costs of doing business in China; when labor costs in China were low, Western countries would accept this. Now that labor costs are narrowing significantly it will become much less acceptable.
The distance between China and the West: this drives up cost of freight and makes logistics more difficult. For the US it is much easier to manufacture in Mexico where labor costs are low but the factories are near.
The language difference: the difficulty and different-ness of working in the Chinese language also drives up costs; again when labor costs were low this was acceptable but with labor costs much higher, this is also significantly reduces the attractiveness of China as compared to say, India.
The talk now is that Vietnam will replace China as the new location of Western manufacturing. Maybe it is, but only in the short-term because Vietnam also has many of the same disadvantages as China. These include language, distance, time difference and rising pollution.
I think the real competition for China to locate manufacturing is the US and the East European countries. The US in particular is major competition since all of the disadvantages that make China less attractive that I have mentioned above do not apply if the manufacturing is done in the US. Eastern Europe suffers from problems such as language and different cultural systems. In the US the culture is the same all over.
In the US labor costs are higher but productivity of both manufacturing and office workers is much higher so the cost difference is starting toi disappear. But housing and rental costs are much lower, and there is no time difference or distance problem. American companies can still locate manufacturing in Mexico. While Mexico has a major disadvantage in its major crime problem, US companies know how to deal with this.
So my feeling is that US companies will look at Vietnam but most will end up locating manufacturing back in the US, supported by Mexico. The US is the new low-cost manufacturing location. China will never be the low-cost location again. That time has passed. China must now face the future based on the new reality that it has become a high-cost country from a manufacturing perspective.
There has been much discussion about China needing to become more innovative. In fact it is becoming more innovative. But it is not happening fast enough to counter the impact of the factors I have talked about above in the short-term. In the shorter-term it needs to do a number of things to help address the problem that it has become a high-cost and less attractive place to locate manufacturing.
The Chinese people are very pragmatic and adaptable. China will make the changes but it needs to take determined action now in certain areas. In other areas it is already doing the right things.
Language: young people are already learning English at school; this is a major asset and its beneficial impact will only I increase as these young people move into leadership positions as they get older.
Mergers and acquisitions of overseas companies; China is acting aggressively on this; however it needs to build companies that I call “acquisition machines”, whom I have written about earlier this year in this magazine.
Quality: Chinese companies are also moving on this area strongly; but there needs to be even more focus on safety and quality with more systematic policing of quality problems in products.
But in certain areas, China is lagging badly and unless these areas are addressed, China will not be able to address the problem of competitiveness that this article has identified. I see four areas that need much more attention and even radical change.
1.Locate Chinese manufacturing in the US: this might seem to be a problem because it will apparently lead to the loss of jobs in China. But by reducing the costs of production it will lead to lower product costs and greater Chinese competiveness. In the long-run China will have no alternative to doing this, just as Japan and the European companies had no alternative to locating production in factories they built in the US.
2.Make leadership systems in companies more open: Chinese companies are very hierarchical. Most companies lack the culture that routinely encourages junior people to make their own suggestions because of the danger that they contradict a senior person. In the aviation industry it is well-known that the leadership culture in cockpits of Asian airlines has directly led to air crashes when a junior co-pilot has been too scared to tell the plane’s Captain that he is doing something wrong or dangerous. China has a similar problem in many of its companies, particularly those that are more traditional. It needs to address this issue. Companies can do this by conducting more leadership courses either internally or sending their emerging leaders to institutions that conduct leadership training. This will speed up necessary change and lead to a long-term improvement in competitiveness.
3.Focus on improving white-collar worker productivity; this can be done by using computers more for office tasks for example such as group faxing, team management, inter-office collaboration and so on. This will require introduction of systems that address office tasks and company collaboration.
4.Focus on the public, not just the private sector: China is already moving in this direction, for example through introducing EVA (Economic Value-Added) accounting to SOEs. But SOEs are still very inefficient and this increases overall Chinese costs, including labor costs. Since the SOEs are such a large part of the Chinese economy, addressing this issue is crucial.