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It seems Chinese solar exporters have hardly any time to catch a breath. Just when they think their business is going to bottom out following the settlement of a one-year trade dispute with their biggest export destination—the EU， yet another storm cloud is quietly gathering on the horizon.
On June 3， the U.S. Department of Commerce made its preliminary determination that it would levy anti-subsidy rates of 18.56 percent to 35.21 percent on Chinese producers and exporters of crystalline silicon photovoltaic （Pv） products.
Punitive duties will be imposed after both the Commerce Department and the U.S. International Trade Commission make affirmative final rulings， which are scheduled for August 18 and October 3， respectively.
The solar imports from China under investigation were valued at an estimated$1.5 billion last year， the Commerce Department said.
It was the second U.S. investigation against Chinese solar products counting a similar one in 2012， which resulted in high anti-dumping tariffs up to 249.96 percent and countervailing duties up to 15.97 percent.
A hard-earned truce has already gone down the drain. The more important question is， are there more to come？
Reactions
The U.S. actions consolidated the second round of anti-subsidy and anti-dumping investigations into Chinese solar products started earlier this year， in response to a petition filed by the U.S. arm of German solar manufacturer SolarWorld.
The move is meant to close a loophole allegedly used by Chinese manufacturers since 2012， when the United States imposed tariffs on solar cells， the basic building blocks of a solar panel， made on the Chinese mainland. Mainland companies have been able to avoid paying the duties by assembling panels with cells made in offshore locations like Taiwan.
This new round of investigation seeks to close that loophole by extending import duties to also cover panels assembled in China from Taiwanese inputs or thirdcountry cells made from Chinese inputs.
To do that， the United States has even revised its current regulation on how to determine the origin of a product.
“Revising current trade regulations to cover one individual trade dispute is unprecedented in the United States. It has a very bad impact and is contradictory to the ‘free trade’ and ‘rule by law’ principles that the country has always advocated，”said Cao yin， consulting director of Martec Group， a Shanghai-based consultancy. With great competitiveness owing to cheap prices and a high level of quality， Chinese solar products have swept the North American continent. U.S. solar installations were worth more than $13 billion in 2013， according to research firm GTM. About half the solar equipment installed in the United States last year was made in China. In the fast-growing rooftop solar market， that figure was 71 percent.
The anti-subsidy duties will hurt the Chinese solar industry， although the overall impact should be limited given the fact that U.S. products accounted for only approximately 10 percent of Chinese solar shipments last year， industry analysts say.
“The import duties will wipe out the price competitiveness of Chinese products in the U.S. market，” said Zhou Ziguang， an analyst with Ping An Securities.
One day after the preliminary decision was announced， China’s Ministry o f C o m m e r c e（MOFCOM） said the United States had“ignored the facts”and abused trade rules in order to protect its domestic industry， adding that the use of trade measures “would not solve the development problems afflicting the U.S. solar industry.”
China’s Pv industry questioned the preliminary decision and pledged to fight it to the bitter end. They also called for the two countries to solve the disputes through negotiations.
Chen Huiqing， Director of the Legal Department at the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products （CCCME）， said the CCCME is actively organizing enterprises to defend themselves. However， once the United States decides to add new tariffs and the duty rates are set high， Chinese companies will be forced to leave the U.S. market， she said.
“It’s totally unfair to levy a 35-percent anti-subsidy duty on Suntech. Suntech has never received any subsidies from the Chinese Government. The high-quality and low-price Pv components that we produce are a result of economies of scale and a good supply chain，” said Luo xin， CEO of Suntech Power， a leading Pv maker in China.
Fan Zhenhua， Legal Director of yingli Solar， the world’s largest solar panel manufacturer， said the company regrets the U.S. Department of Commerce’s decision to levy punitive duties disregarding Chinese firms’ reasonable demands and opposition.
yingli Solar， which is headquartered in Baoding， north China’s Hebei Province， will coordinate with the government and the industry association to prepare an appeal against the duties， Fan said. The preliminary decision represents a big victory for SolarWorld and other U.S. Pv makers. However， there are a lot of complaints stateside as many believe imposing import duties will only push up the cost of solar power and hinder the country’s progress in developing solar energy applications.
“The ruling is a major setback for the entire U.S. solar industry because it will immediately increase the price of solar power and cost American jobs in one of fastestgrowing sectors of the U.S. economy，” said the Coalition for Affordable Solar Energy.
Rhone Resch， President and CEO of the U.S. Solar Energy Industries Association， called for all parties concerned to solve the disputes through negotiations before the entire industry is hurt.
“These damaging tariffs will increase costs for U.S. solar consumers and， in turn， slow the adoption of solar with the United States，” he said. “It’s time to end this needless litigation with a negotiated solution that addresses SolarWorld’s trade allegations while ensuring the continued growth of the U.S. solar market.”
The ripple effect
The one thing that worries China most is that more such investigations will come following the U.S. action， echoing what happened after the first round of anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations by the United States in 2012.
On June 6， EU ProSun， a joint initiative of members of the EU solar industry， handed in a document to the European Commission， accusing Chinese makers of breaking the minimum set price that the two countries agreed on in a trade settlement last August.
To date， many Chinese Pv makers concerned have denied the accusation， calling it “false and absurd.” However， this may herald the start of yet another trade row between China and the EU.
Ever since the United States levied punitive duties on solar imports from China in 2012， countries or regions including India， Australia， Japan and the EU have followed suit in launching similar investigations.
“MOFCOM and Pv makers should actively respond to U.S. investigations and deal with the conundrum，” said Zhao yuwen， vice Chairman of China Renewable Energy Industry Association. “Although the U.S. investigation won’t have as much impact as the EU investigation， it still needs to be treated very carefully to avoid negative consequences.”
“The U.S. market is always the barometer of industrial policies. Any U.S. action in the Pv industry can easily lead other countries to emulate them. Chinese companies should be highly alert of ensuing investigations from the EU， India or Australia，”said Ren， a researcher at Shenzhen-based industry research company CIConsulting. Ren predicted Pv exports to the United States will only account for 6 to 7 percent of total exports after the investigation， compared to the current 9 to 10 percent.
So， why is China’s Pv industry a frequent target of such investigations？
Qian Jing， Brand Director of Jinko Solar， said the main reason is that while the key technology of solar products have been widely disseminated across the world， the low-cost advantage in the market is in the hands of Chinese.
“As opposed to other manufacturing sectors， every country started developing their solar sector almost at the same time. The sudden boom of Chinese Pv makers posed a great threat to foreign competitors，” said Shi Dinghuan， Chairman of the China Renewable Energy Industry Association. “However， China’s advantage only lies in the manufacturing end while the raw material is imported from other countries. In no way does China have a monopoly over the whole industry.”
Also， trade disputes are highly unlikely to be avoided amid global economic instability. Such disputes can sometimes serve to support domestic industries and in some cases， can even be used as political leverage， analysts say.
A way out
Experts suggest building factories overseas could present a viable solution. Also， the untapped domestic market rep-resents a diamond in the rough.
A report from China New Energy Chamber of Commerce said China has become the world’s largest solar market， having surpassed Germany in 2013. The focus of the global solar market is now shifting from Europe to Asia， according to the report.
With its 1.3-billion-strong population， China is certainly an immense market. Turning to the domestic market instead of the more and more difficult global market should be an obvious choice for Chinese Pv makers. So what’s with the holdup？
Ren， the CIConsulting researcher， said there are many roadblocks standing in the way of a healthy domestic solar industry.
“Many policies haven’t been formulated or implemented， such as connecting generated solar power to the national grid， supervision of the industry， subsidy standards and preferential loan policies，” Ren said. “Formulation and implementation of these policies should be expedited.”
Ren said anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations have bankrupted an array of Pv companies but they may also present a good opportunity for a technological upgrade and transformation of growth patterns in the beleaguered industry. A transformation of growth patterns needs support from all sides. The Chinese Government， which has been scrambling to boost domestic demand to offset declines in orders from Europe—previously the dominant buyer of Chinese solar products—issued a document on boosting the healthy development of the Pv industry last July.
“It requires support from the Central Government， local governments and investors. Massive capital input and building a strong research and development team are equally important，” said Shen Hui， an expert in solar power in Zhongshan University.
Meanwhile， Chinese Pv makers’ export destinations have greatly diversified， signaling a change in the global business landscape.
Statistics from the CCCME show that China’s Pv exports shrunk by an alarming 18 percent in 2013. Exports to the EU used to account for 65 to 70 percent of the total while that percentage shrunk to 37 percent in 2013 in parallel with exports to the North American continent shrinking to between 15 to 18 percent.
The Asian market， on the other hand， rose to 45 percent of China’s Pv exports. Japan imported $3 billion worth of Pv products from China， becoming its biggest export destination. The Indian and South African markets are also booming， according to the CCCME.
“On the one hand， the growth potential of African， Central Asian and South American markets should never be underestimated. On the other hand， turning to the domestic market is a wise choice. Cultivating a robust domestic consumption market is the guarantee of a healthy Pv industry，” Ren said.
However， before China fully completes its economic restructuring， the business revenue of Chinese Pv makers won’t greatly improve in the near future. A price war is still inevitable， warned Ren.
On June 3， the U.S. Department of Commerce made its preliminary determination that it would levy anti-subsidy rates of 18.56 percent to 35.21 percent on Chinese producers and exporters of crystalline silicon photovoltaic （Pv） products.
Punitive duties will be imposed after both the Commerce Department and the U.S. International Trade Commission make affirmative final rulings， which are scheduled for August 18 and October 3， respectively.
The solar imports from China under investigation were valued at an estimated$1.5 billion last year， the Commerce Department said.
It was the second U.S. investigation against Chinese solar products counting a similar one in 2012， which resulted in high anti-dumping tariffs up to 249.96 percent and countervailing duties up to 15.97 percent.
A hard-earned truce has already gone down the drain. The more important question is， are there more to come？
Reactions
The U.S. actions consolidated the second round of anti-subsidy and anti-dumping investigations into Chinese solar products started earlier this year， in response to a petition filed by the U.S. arm of German solar manufacturer SolarWorld.
The move is meant to close a loophole allegedly used by Chinese manufacturers since 2012， when the United States imposed tariffs on solar cells， the basic building blocks of a solar panel， made on the Chinese mainland. Mainland companies have been able to avoid paying the duties by assembling panels with cells made in offshore locations like Taiwan.
This new round of investigation seeks to close that loophole by extending import duties to also cover panels assembled in China from Taiwanese inputs or thirdcountry cells made from Chinese inputs.
To do that， the United States has even revised its current regulation on how to determine the origin of a product.
“Revising current trade regulations to cover one individual trade dispute is unprecedented in the United States. It has a very bad impact and is contradictory to the ‘free trade’ and ‘rule by law’ principles that the country has always advocated，”said Cao yin， consulting director of Martec Group， a Shanghai-based consultancy. With great competitiveness owing to cheap prices and a high level of quality， Chinese solar products have swept the North American continent. U.S. solar installations were worth more than $13 billion in 2013， according to research firm GTM. About half the solar equipment installed in the United States last year was made in China. In the fast-growing rooftop solar market， that figure was 71 percent.
The anti-subsidy duties will hurt the Chinese solar industry， although the overall impact should be limited given the fact that U.S. products accounted for only approximately 10 percent of Chinese solar shipments last year， industry analysts say.
“The import duties will wipe out the price competitiveness of Chinese products in the U.S. market，” said Zhou Ziguang， an analyst with Ping An Securities.
One day after the preliminary decision was announced， China’s Ministry o f C o m m e r c e（MOFCOM） said the United States had“ignored the facts”and abused trade rules in order to protect its domestic industry， adding that the use of trade measures “would not solve the development problems afflicting the U.S. solar industry.”
China’s Pv industry questioned the preliminary decision and pledged to fight it to the bitter end. They also called for the two countries to solve the disputes through negotiations.
Chen Huiqing， Director of the Legal Department at the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products （CCCME）， said the CCCME is actively organizing enterprises to defend themselves. However， once the United States decides to add new tariffs and the duty rates are set high， Chinese companies will be forced to leave the U.S. market， she said.
“It’s totally unfair to levy a 35-percent anti-subsidy duty on Suntech. Suntech has never received any subsidies from the Chinese Government. The high-quality and low-price Pv components that we produce are a result of economies of scale and a good supply chain，” said Luo xin， CEO of Suntech Power， a leading Pv maker in China.
Fan Zhenhua， Legal Director of yingli Solar， the world’s largest solar panel manufacturer， said the company regrets the U.S. Department of Commerce’s decision to levy punitive duties disregarding Chinese firms’ reasonable demands and opposition.
yingli Solar， which is headquartered in Baoding， north China’s Hebei Province， will coordinate with the government and the industry association to prepare an appeal against the duties， Fan said. The preliminary decision represents a big victory for SolarWorld and other U.S. Pv makers. However， there are a lot of complaints stateside as many believe imposing import duties will only push up the cost of solar power and hinder the country’s progress in developing solar energy applications.
“The ruling is a major setback for the entire U.S. solar industry because it will immediately increase the price of solar power and cost American jobs in one of fastestgrowing sectors of the U.S. economy，” said the Coalition for Affordable Solar Energy.
Rhone Resch， President and CEO of the U.S. Solar Energy Industries Association， called for all parties concerned to solve the disputes through negotiations before the entire industry is hurt.
“These damaging tariffs will increase costs for U.S. solar consumers and， in turn， slow the adoption of solar with the United States，” he said. “It’s time to end this needless litigation with a negotiated solution that addresses SolarWorld’s trade allegations while ensuring the continued growth of the U.S. solar market.”
The ripple effect
The one thing that worries China most is that more such investigations will come following the U.S. action， echoing what happened after the first round of anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations by the United States in 2012.
On June 6， EU ProSun， a joint initiative of members of the EU solar industry， handed in a document to the European Commission， accusing Chinese makers of breaking the minimum set price that the two countries agreed on in a trade settlement last August.
To date， many Chinese Pv makers concerned have denied the accusation， calling it “false and absurd.” However， this may herald the start of yet another trade row between China and the EU.
Ever since the United States levied punitive duties on solar imports from China in 2012， countries or regions including India， Australia， Japan and the EU have followed suit in launching similar investigations.
“MOFCOM and Pv makers should actively respond to U.S. investigations and deal with the conundrum，” said Zhao yuwen， vice Chairman of China Renewable Energy Industry Association. “Although the U.S. investigation won’t have as much impact as the EU investigation， it still needs to be treated very carefully to avoid negative consequences.”
“The U.S. market is always the barometer of industrial policies. Any U.S. action in the Pv industry can easily lead other countries to emulate them. Chinese companies should be highly alert of ensuing investigations from the EU， India or Australia，”said Ren， a researcher at Shenzhen-based industry research company CIConsulting. Ren predicted Pv exports to the United States will only account for 6 to 7 percent of total exports after the investigation， compared to the current 9 to 10 percent.
So， why is China’s Pv industry a frequent target of such investigations？
Qian Jing， Brand Director of Jinko Solar， said the main reason is that while the key technology of solar products have been widely disseminated across the world， the low-cost advantage in the market is in the hands of Chinese.
“As opposed to other manufacturing sectors， every country started developing their solar sector almost at the same time. The sudden boom of Chinese Pv makers posed a great threat to foreign competitors，” said Shi Dinghuan， Chairman of the China Renewable Energy Industry Association. “However， China’s advantage only lies in the manufacturing end while the raw material is imported from other countries. In no way does China have a monopoly over the whole industry.”
Also， trade disputes are highly unlikely to be avoided amid global economic instability. Such disputes can sometimes serve to support domestic industries and in some cases， can even be used as political leverage， analysts say.
A way out
Experts suggest building factories overseas could present a viable solution. Also， the untapped domestic market rep-resents a diamond in the rough.
A report from China New Energy Chamber of Commerce said China has become the world’s largest solar market， having surpassed Germany in 2013. The focus of the global solar market is now shifting from Europe to Asia， according to the report.
With its 1.3-billion-strong population， China is certainly an immense market. Turning to the domestic market instead of the more and more difficult global market should be an obvious choice for Chinese Pv makers. So what’s with the holdup？
Ren， the CIConsulting researcher， said there are many roadblocks standing in the way of a healthy domestic solar industry.
“Many policies haven’t been formulated or implemented， such as connecting generated solar power to the national grid， supervision of the industry， subsidy standards and preferential loan policies，” Ren said. “Formulation and implementation of these policies should be expedited.”
Ren said anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations have bankrupted an array of Pv companies but they may also present a good opportunity for a technological upgrade and transformation of growth patterns in the beleaguered industry. A transformation of growth patterns needs support from all sides. The Chinese Government， which has been scrambling to boost domestic demand to offset declines in orders from Europe—previously the dominant buyer of Chinese solar products—issued a document on boosting the healthy development of the Pv industry last July.
“It requires support from the Central Government， local governments and investors. Massive capital input and building a strong research and development team are equally important，” said Shen Hui， an expert in solar power in Zhongshan University.
Meanwhile， Chinese Pv makers’ export destinations have greatly diversified， signaling a change in the global business landscape.
Statistics from the CCCME show that China’s Pv exports shrunk by an alarming 18 percent in 2013. Exports to the EU used to account for 65 to 70 percent of the total while that percentage shrunk to 37 percent in 2013 in parallel with exports to the North American continent shrinking to between 15 to 18 percent.
The Asian market， on the other hand， rose to 45 percent of China’s Pv exports. Japan imported $3 billion worth of Pv products from China， becoming its biggest export destination. The Indian and South African markets are also booming， according to the CCCME.
“On the one hand， the growth potential of African， Central Asian and South American markets should never be underestimated. On the other hand， turning to the domestic market is a wise choice. Cultivating a robust domestic consumption market is the guarantee of a healthy Pv industry，” Ren said.
However， before China fully completes its economic restructuring， the business revenue of Chinese Pv makers won’t greatly improve in the near future. A price war is still inevitable， warned Ren.