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传统的洪峰流量预报是通过峰量关系来确定,根据降雨径流相关图,预报径流量再预报洪峰流量。由于流域植被条件变迁和人为活动影响,造成产流要素的演变。直接建立与产流因子间的相关关系,以反比例函数原理,分析降雨径流的物理成因及数学规律,根据本流域特性,以水科院山区小流域推导公式,视其流域特性,推导出降雨径流回归方程。以降雨产流基本公式,考虑局部降雨及前期土壤含水量,确定洪水总量预报模型。
The traditional flood peak flow forecast is determined by the relationship between peak and peak, according to the correlation diagram of rainfall runoff, forecast the runoff and then forecast the peak flow. Due to the change of vegetation conditions and human activities in the basin, the evolution of runoff elements is caused. According to the characteristic of the river basin, the derivation formula of the small watershed in the mountain area of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the rainfall runoff are deduced according to the characteristics of the river basin Regression equation. Taking the basic formula of rainfall and runoff, taking into account the local rainfall and the soil moisture content of the previous period, the forecast model of the total amount of floods is determined.