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本文将重型急性胰腺炎生存的９１例和死亡的４６例，进行对比性研究。结果表明，下列各项是简便、快速、比较敏感和特异的早期评估重型急性胰腺炎预后的指标：①年龄大于４０岁；②胃肠道或皮下出血；③少尿或无尿；④意识障碍；⑤收缩压小于１２ｋＰａ；⑥心率大于１２０次／分；⑦呼吸大于３５次／分；⑧血肌酐大于１７７μｍｏｌ／Ｌ；⑨血糖大于１１．１ｍｍｏｌ／Ｌ；血尿素氮大于或等于１４．３ｍｍｏｌ／Ｌ。阳性项目大于或等于３者，预示病情严重，病死率高。其准确度、灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值和阴性预测值分别为７８．８３％、６５．２２％、８５．７１％、６９．７７％和８２．９８％。
In this paper, 91 cases of severe acute pancreatitis and death of 46 cases, a comparative study. The results indicate that the following items are simple, rapid, sensitive and specific indicators for the early assessment of the prognosis of severe acute pancreatitis: ① age> 40 years; ② gastrointestinal or subcutaneous hemorrhage; ③ oliguria or anuria; ④ disturbance of consciousness ; ⑤ systolic blood pressure less than 12kPa; ⑥ heart rate greater than 120 beats / min; ⑦ breathing more than 35 beats / min; ⑧ serum creatinine greater than 177μmol / L; ⑨ blood glucose greater than 11.1mmol / L; blood urea nitrogen greater than or equal to 14.3mmol / L. Positive items greater than or equal to 3, indicating a serious illness, high mortality. The accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 78.83%, 65.22%, 85.71%, 69.77% and 82.98% respectively.