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输电系统投资面临很多潜在的市场风险,这对投资者决策的灵活性提出了较高的要求。考虑输电投资的不确定因素,引入柔性输电装置投资方案,应用最小二乘蒙特卡洛模拟方法建立了投资期权估值模型,在此基础上,建立了优先投资柔性输电装置、优先投资输电线路和同时投资柔性输电装置和输电线路3种方案的期权价值模型,并以社会收益最大化为决策准则,通过Garver-6节点系统及IEEE-24节点系统对方法及模型进行验证。
Transmission system investment faces a lot of potential market risks, which put forward higher requirements for investors’ decision-making flexibility. Considering the uncertainties of transmission investment, the investment scheme of flexible transmission device is introduced, and the investment option valuation model is established by using the least-squares Monte Carlo simulation method. Based on this, a flexible transmission device with priority investment, priority investment in transmission line and At the same time, the option value model of three schemes of flexible transmission and transmission lines is invested. The method and model are validated by Garver-6 node system and IEEE-24 node system with the maximization of social benefits as the decision criterion.