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本文主要利用1951—1987年历年各月欧亚各层天气图、500百帕等压面高度、全国160个站气温,1950—1980年历年各月日本石垣岛、宫古岛、南鸟岛气温资料,分析了冬半年(9月—翌年4月,下同)东亚冷暖、冷空气活动路径等与ENSO事件发生的关系。并利用1978年12月一1979年3月及1985年12月—1986年2月两次热带西太平洋考察资料,分析了东亚寒潮过程对赤道西太平洋天气的影响。文章揭示了利用北半球中、高纬度大气环流变异预测ENSO事件发生的可能性。
This paper mainly uses the weather charts of all the Eurasian layers in each calendar year 1951-1987, the height of 500 hectopascal isobars, the temperature of 160 stations in China, the temperatures of Ishigaki, Miyakojima and Namodojima in each of the 1950-1980 calendar months Data, the relationship between ENSO events and cold and warm in East Asia and the path of cold air activities during the winter half year (September - April next year, the same below) are analyzed. Based on the data from two tropical West Pacific surveys from December 1978 to March 1979 and from December 1985 to February 1986, the impact of the East Asian cold wave process on the equatorial western Pacific was analyzed. The article reveals the possibility of predicting the occurrence of ENSO events by using the atmospheric circulation variations at mid and high latitudes in the northern hemisphere.