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本文认为,股票市场下滑与房地产市场下降是经济危机的两个主要表现,其中美国房地产价值下跌实际上也是导致经济危机的一个很重要的原因。文章指出,受经济危机影响,美国股票市场暂时处于低迷状态,但基本面是好的,是积极向上的。美国2008年第四季度GDP下降了2%,2009年第一季度又下降了2%,2009年第二季度还会下降。如果不能采取比较好的政策,美国在接下来的10年里发展势头可能不会很好,但并没有进入经济大萧条时期。美国经济不会一直滑下去,将来有可能通过减少税收、提高生产力等方式走出经济泥潭,实现经济的繁荣,但要以牺牲10年的增长速度为代价。文章提出,中国人口众多,经济活力很大,中国经济的恢复是没有问题的,当然这需要制定很好的政策,如引进和开发高新技术等。中国需要变得更为开放一些,以吸引更多国际企业进入,同时中国还要发展更多的国际化公司,并在一些发达国家建立分支机构,这一点也非常重要。从工业看,中国通过与西方国家密切合作,在国际分工中的地位不断提升,这也是中国经济过去10年来不断高速增长的一个原因。如果能够继续维持较高的增长速度,中国将于2025年进入世界富国行列。中国肯定会赶上来,目前只是一个时间问题。
This paper argues that the decline of the stock market and the decline of the real estate market are two major manifestations of the economic crisis. The drop of the real estate value in the United States is actually a very important cause of the economic crisis. The article points out that due to the economic crisis, the U.S. stock market is temporarily in a downturn, but the fundamentals are good and positive. In the fourth quarter of 2008, the U.S. GDP dropped by 2%, another 2% in the first quarter of 2009, and the second quarter of 2009 will decline. If we can not adopt a relatively good policy, the momentum of development in the United States may not be good for the next 10 years, but it will not enter the period of the Great Depression. The U.S. economy will not slide down all the time. In the future, it is possible to get out of the economic quagmire by reducing taxes and boosting productivity, so as to achieve economic prosperity but at the expense of a 10-year growth rate. The article argues that China has a large population and a great economic vitality. There is no problem with China’s economic recovery. Of course, this requires the formulation of good policies such as the introduction and development of high-tech industries. It is also important that China needs to become more open in order to attract more international businesses to enter. At the same time, China needs to develop more international companies and establish branches in some developed countries. From an industrial perspective, China, through its close cooperation with Western countries, has been steadily raising its position in the international division of labor, which is one of the reasons why China’s economy has been growing at a rapid rate in the past decade. If it can continue to maintain a high growth rate, China will enter the world’s rich nation by 2025. China will definitely catch up and is only a matter of time.