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随着人类深空探测活动的增加及空间导航装备鉴定的需求,传统的概率指标和评估方法已不能满足系统鉴定使用要求.推导归纳了3种球概率误差(SEP,Sphere ErrorProbability)的计算方法:三重积分方程法、卡方(χ2)分布近似法和极大似然估计(MLE,Maxi-mum Likelihood Estimate)法.研究了2种统计试验方案,提出了TSEP(Time SEP)精度评估方法.仿真及试验验证表明:TSEP方法能对空间装备的定位精度给出相对全面的评价,方案可行,兼容传统指标的计算方法且可充分利用单次试验数据,试验验证简单.3种算法计算的SEP值,其最大相对误差均不超过7%;χ2分布近似值稍偏保守,推荐工程使用;而MLE计算值可作为积分运算的初值,以减少积分运算次数,快速获取真值.
With the increase of human exploration in deep space and the demand of space navigation equipment identification, the traditional probability index and evaluation method can not meet the requirements of system identification and application. The calculation methods of three spherical probability errors (SEP, Sphere ErrorProbability) Triple integral equation method, chi-squared (χ2) distribution approximation and Max-mum Likelihood Estimate (MLE) method, two kinds of statistical test schemes are studied and the method of TSEP (Time SEP) accuracy assessment is proposed. The experimental results show that the TSEP method can give a relatively comprehensive evaluation of the positioning accuracy of space equipment, and the scheme is feasible and compatible with the calculation method of traditional indicators and can make full use of single test data, and the test verification is simple. The SEP values , The maximum relative error is not more than 7%; χ2 distribution approximate conservative conservative, recommended engineering use; and MLE calculated value can be used as initial value of integral operation, in order to reduce the number of integral operation, quickly obtain the true value.