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(4)定量估计:在这阶段可得到故障树顶事件的有关数字信息,例如失效率、维修率、不可靠性等。在故障树的定量分析中需要知道所研究的机械系统有关零部件的大量可靠性数据。获取这些数据往往是很困难的,有时甚至是不可能的[5]。因此在故障树的定量分析中往往会遇到困难。但是即使没有故障树的定量分析,故障树的定性分析对改进设计也是很有益的。作者认为克服故障树定量分析困难的一个比较实用而有效的办法就是半定量化的分析方法—摸糊数学方法。对许多民用工业机械系统来说,我们并不需要这样精确的定量结果,而只要知道一个比较粗略的估计就完全可以满足要求了,这时就没有必要采用概率论这种精确的分析方法,而完全可以用比较方便的摸糊数学理论。在对一般机械系统进行潜故障分析时,
(4) Quantitative estimation: Digital information about the top of the fault tree can be obtained at this stage, such as failure rate, maintenance rate, unreliability and so on. Quantitative analysis of the fault tree requires a large amount of reliability data on the parts of the studied mechanical system. Getting these data is often difficult and sometimes impossible [5]. Therefore, the quantitative analysis of the fault tree will often encounter difficulties. But without the quantitative analysis of the fault tree, the qualitative analysis of the fault tree is also beneficial for improving the design. The author thinks that a more practical and effective way to overcome the difficulty of quantitative analysis of fault tree is semi-quantitative analysis method-fuzzy mathematics. For many industrial machinery systems, we do not need such a precise quantitative results, but as long as we know a rough estimate can meet the requirements, then there is no need to use the probability theory of this accurate analysis, and Can be more convenient with fuzzy mathematics theory. In the general mechanical system for potential failure analysis,