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20世纪 90年代以来 GDP的就业弹性逐年下降 ,部分学者将下降原因归结为工业走了资本密集化道路。本文试图利用定量分析方法检验这一推断 ,结果发现上述推断理由并不充分 ,90年代以来资本投资增加不仅没有替代劳动力 ,反而是拉动就业增加的主要因素。由于市场化程度不断提高 ,实际工资增加抵消了投资对就业的拉动作用 ,导致 GDP的就业弹性下降。我们预计今后一段时间市场化对就业的抑制作用将减缓 ,GDP的就业弹性逐年下降趋势将改变 ,有可能转而增加。
The employment elasticity of GDP has declined year by year since the 1990s. Some scholars attribute the decline to the fact that the industry has taken the path of capital-intensive. This paper tries to test this conclusion by means of quantitative analysis and finds that the above reasoning is not sufficient. Increasing capital investment since 1990s has not only failed to replace labor force, but has been the main factor driving employment growth. Due to the increasing marketization, the real wage increase offset the stimulus effect of investment on employment, resulting in a decrease in the employment elasticity of GDP. We expect market inhibition on employment will slow down in the coming period, and employment elasticity of GDP will change year by year and may turn to increase.