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在论述铁矿石需求预测途径的基础上,选取影响我国铁矿石需求的8个基本因素,采用回归分析方法进行了铁矿石需求的单因素分析.单因素分析结果表明,选取的8个基本因素与铁矿石需求的相关度基本都大于0.9.对8个基本影响因素进行了主成分分析,最终降维为4个主成分.将主成分分析方法与回归分析方法相结合,建立了铁矿石的需求预测模型,并对我国2015年和2020年铁矿石的需求量进行了预测,分别为29.76亿t和26.68亿t.
Based on the discussion of iron ore demand forecasting methods, eight basic factors that affect the demand of iron ore in our country are selected, and the univariate analysis of iron ore demand is carried out by regression analysis.Univariate analysis shows that 8 The correlation between basic factors and iron ore demand is basically greater than 0.9.The principal component analysis of the eight basic influencing factors is carried out and the final principal dimension is reduced to four principal components.The principal component analysis method and the regression analysis method are combined to establish Iron ore demand forecasting model and forecast the demand for iron ore in China in 2015 and 2020 respectively, at 2.97 billion tons and 2.268 billion tons respectively.