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短期电价预测的准确性和稳定性对电力竞价决策具有重要作用。针对目前短期电价预测方法的局限性,提出并建立了一种基于多智能体的智能化短期电价预测方法。按照智能预测和组合预测的思想,实现了各类预测模型的智能选择、定量与定性方法的有机整合,并重点研究了知识库的构建及基于多智能体的预测流程。仿真试验结果表明,与常规预测方法相比,该方法的准确性和稳定性均得到了提高。
The accuracy and stability of short-term price forecast plays an important role in the decision-making of electric bidding. In view of the limitations of the current short-term price forecasting method, an intelligent short-term price forecasting method based on multi-agent is proposed and established. According to the idea of intelligent forecasting and combined forecasting, the intelligent integration, quantitative and qualitative methods of various forecasting models are integrated organically, and the construction of knowledge base and the forecasting process based on multi-agent are studied emphatically. The simulation results show that the accuracy and stability of the proposed method are improved compared with the conventional methods.