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在1981年-2010年中国东北地区108个农业气象站逐年气象数据基础上,本文通过运用AEZ模型模拟其春玉米光温潜力、气候潜力变化过程,分析了其春玉米气候潜力年际变化特征和变化趋势。研究中以1年为单位的模拟实验减少了玉米气候潜力变化分析的不确定性,而全区尺度的模拟从宏观角度揭示了玉米气候潜力变化空间格局。结果表明:东北地区春玉米气候潜力年际变化大,标准差为3.05t/hm2,大兴安岭南部和东北平原西部为全区高值区。气候潜力年际变化大的主要影响因子是水分条件,其次是光照和热量。近30年东北地区春玉米气候潜力明显减少且减少趋势空间差异明显,呼伦贝尔高原-大兴安岭南部-吉林西部一带减少最快。气候潜力主要因降水量减少而下降,升温的作用较小。该研究结果可为东北地区玉米种植宏观决策提供支持。
Based on the annual meteorological data of 108 agro-meteorological stations in Northeast China from 1981 to 2010, the paper analyzed the interannual variability of spring maize climate potential by using AEZ model to simulate the process of light-temperature potential and climate potential of spring maize. Trend. In the study, a one-year simulation experiment reduced the uncertainty of the change analysis of maize climate potential, while the simulation of the whole region revealed the spatial pattern of maize climate potential change from a macro perspective. The results showed that the annual variation of spring maize climate potential in northeast China was large with a standard deviation of 3.05t / hm2. The southern part of Daxinganling and the western part of Northeast China were all high value areas. The main influencing factors of large interannual variability of climate potential are water conditions, followed by light and heat. In the recent 30 years, the climate potential of spring maize in northeast China decreased significantly and the trend of decreasing trend was obvious. The Hulunbeier Plateau - southern part of Daxinganling - the western part of Jilin Province was the fastest. Climate potential is mainly due to the decrease of precipitation, and the effect of warming is smaller. The results of this study can provide support for macroscopic decision-making of maize planting in northeast China.