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本文试从定量的角度,对民间投资的增长趋势、影响因素进行了数理式实证和思辩式实证分析,从而得知,近些年民间投资的增长态势是下降的。自1993年以来,我国的民间投资尽管也存在着绝对数量、相对比和贡献率的上升趋势,但关键指标增长率总体上是呈下降态势的。我国的民间投资函数是δI=0.1330038δY—18.14925δR,实际贷款利率R和国民收入Y是较为重要的影响因素,但更为重要的是政策因素、市场环境因素、制度因素等。应当寻求建立民间资本良好的内生金融机制、实行中性的财政政策、开放投资领域、消除投资壁垒,对非国有企业减免税等措施促进民间投资增长。
This paper tries quantitatively from the perspective of the growth trend of private investment, the impact of empirical and empirical evidence-based empirical analysis, which learned in recent years, private investment growth is declining. Since 1993, the growth rate of the key indicators has been declining overall, although the absolute number, relative ratio and contribution rate of private investment in our country have also risen. China’s private investment function is δI = 0.1330038δY-18.14925δR. The actual loan interest rate R and national income Y are more important influencing factors, but more important are policy factors, market environment factors and institutional factors. We should seek to establish a good endogenous financial mechanism for private capital, implement a neutral fiscal policy, open up investment areas, eliminate investment barriers and promote non-government investment growth through measures such as tax relief for non-state-owned enterprises.