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在需求约束下 ,储蓄不能有效地转化为投资或消费 ,会对经济增长产生抑制作用。自 1 998年以来 ,我国政府先后推出一系列启动投资需求与消费需求的扩张性财政政策与货币政策 ,其中比较具有代表性的两项是利息税与存款准备金。其目标是试图从公众和银行两个方面构造促使储蓄向投资或消费转化的政策渠道。本文重点分析在预期的影响下利息税与存款准备金政策的有效性 ,指出运用扩张性财政政策与货币政策要注意公众预期的影响。宏观经济政策要对公众预期产生引导作用 ,通过对预期的调节 ,使宏观经济政策充分发挥应有的效应。
Under demand constraints, saving can not be effectively converted into investment or consumption, which will have an inhibitory effect on economic growth. Since 1998, our government has launched a series of expansionary fiscal policies and monetary policies to start the demand for and the consumption of investment. Among them, the two representative ones are interest tax and deposit reserve. Its goal is to try to construct a policy channel that will promote the conversion of savings to investment or consumption from both the public and the banks. This article focuses on analyzing the effectiveness of the interest tax and deposit reserve policy under the expected impact and points out that the use of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies should pay attention to the impact of public expectations. Macroeconomic policies should guide the public’s expectation. By adjusting expectations, macroeconomic policies should give full play to their due effects.