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2012年第3季度天然橡胶市场整体呈U形走势。7月沪胶指数冲高回落,最高到24952元受阻,回落到22000元获得支撑;8月弱势震荡筑底,创出年内新低20728元;9月在一系列利好消息的提振下,沪胶市场呈现一波较强的反弹走势,沪胶指数最高到24694元略微受阻;9月底围绕24000元窄幅震荡。截止到2012年9月28日,沪胶指数报收25043元,第3季度上涨1956元,涨幅为8.47%。近期的宏观政策和产业政策仍将继续发酵;国内汽车季节性消费到来及轮胎特保案结束预计将使天然橡胶消费有所改善;东南亚产胶国削减出口和泰国收储将对天然橡胶供应形成一定截留,缓和天然橡胶现货库存压力。市场风险因素主要还是来自欧洲市场,全球经济疲软的大环境也将对天然橡胶市场形成一定拖累。展望第4季度,天然橡胶价格底部特征愈发明朗,天然橡胶市场重心仍有望震荡上移,沪胶指数上方26500～27000元仍为强阻力区,要达到预估的高点30000元难度依然较大。
The third quarter of 2012, the overall natural rubber market was U-shaped trend. July Hujiao index finished lower, up to 24,952 yuan blocked, down to 22,000 yuan to obtain support; August weak shock bottoms, hit a new low of 20,728 yuan during the year; September in a series of good news boosted Hujiao The market showed a wave of strong rebound, Hujiao index up to 24694 yuan slightly blocked; at the end of September around 24,000 yuan within a narrow range. As of September 28, 2012, Hujiao index closed at 25,043 yuan, the third quarter rose 1956 yuan, or 8.47%. Recent macroeconomic policies and industrial policies will continue to be fermented; the seasonal consumption of domestic vehicles and the end of the special safeguard scheme for tires are expected to improve consumption of natural rubber; the reduction of exports from Southeast Asian rubber-producing countries and the receipt and purchase of Thailand will result in the supply of natural rubber Certain interception, easing stock pressure of natural rubber stock. Market risk factors are mainly from the European market, the global economic weakness of the environment will also drag on the natural rubber market. Outlook Q4, the bottom of natural rubber prices more clear characteristics of the center of gravity of natural rubber market is still expected to go up shocks, Hujiao index above 26,500 ~ 27,000 yuan is still a strong resistance area, to reach the estimated high point of 30,000 yuan is still more difficult Big.