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根据1961—2011年长江流域116个气象站点的逐日气象资料,应用Penman-Monteith法计算该流域的潜在蒸散量,在此基础上使用反距离加权(IDW)插值、M-K突变检验、Morlet小波分析和R/S趋势分析等方法对该流域潜在蒸散量的时空变化特征进行研究。结果表明:近51年来长江流域潜在蒸散量年际变化倾向率为-0.34mm·a-1,空间分布上表现为由西向东先减小后增大的趋势;从潜在蒸散量的季节变化来看,除秋季增加趋势比较明显外,其他各季均表现为不同程度的减小趋势,总体表现为夏季>秋季>春季>冬季;通过M-K突变检验和小波分析发现,全年潜在蒸散量的突变发生在1980年前后,年潜在蒸散量出现了准12年左右的第一主周期和准4年左右的第二主周期;R/S分析表明,除了降水量之外,其他气候因子与潜在蒸散量的变化都与过去保持持续的趋势一致性。
Based on the daily meteorological data of 116 meteorological stations in the Yangtze River valley from 1961 to 2011, Penman-Monteith method was used to calculate the potential evapotranspiration of the river basin. Based on this, inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation, MK mutation test, Morlet wavelet analysis and R / S trend analysis and other methods of temporal and spatial variation of potential evapotranspiration. The results show that in the recent 51 years, the interannual change tendency of potential evapotranspiration in the Yangtze River Basin is -0.34 mm · a-1, and the spatial distribution of the potential evapotranspiration shows a trend of decreasing first and then increasing from west to east. From the seasonal change of potential evapotranspiration In addition to the obvious trend of autumn increasing, all the other seasons showed decreasing trend in different degrees, the overall performance was summer> autumn> spring> winter; by MK mutation test and wavelet analysis, it was found that the annual potential evapotranspiration mutation Occurred before and after 1980, the annual potential evapotranspiration shows the first main period of about 12 years and the second main period of about 4 years. The R / S analysis shows that in addition to the precipitation, other climatic factors and potential evapotranspiration The quantitative changes are consistent with the trend of the past.