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随着人口的增长和经济的高速发展，水资源短缺日益严重。利用基于宏观经济的分行业需水预测模型，对２１世纪上半叶中国的需水形势进行展望。进入２１世纪以后，在相当长的一段时间内，水资源紧缺仍然将困扰着我国社会经济的发展，供需矛盾有可能进一步加剧。２０３０年前后预计将会出现缺水的高峰，２０３０年后供需缺口有望减缓，到２１世纪中叶实现水资源总供给和总需求的基本平衡。
With population growth and rapid economic development, water shortages have become increasingly serious. Based on the macro-economy-based industry demand forecasting model, the water demand situation in China in the first half of the 21st century is forecasted. After entering the 21st century, for a long period of time, the shortage of water resources will still plague the development of China’s social economy, and the contradiction between supply and demand may further intensify. The peak of water shortage is expected to occur around 2030, and the gap between supply and demand after 2030 is expected to slow down. By the middle of the 21st century, the basic balance of total water supply and total demand will be realized.