论文部分内容阅读
文章利用江苏省“十五”期间的面板数据对警力与犯罪问题进行实证研究。与以往文献不同,我们把一线民警从整体警力中剥离出来,认为一线民警的数量与犯罪率存在双向因果关系。通过对联立方程组进行三阶段最小二乘估计(3SLS),我们发现,刑事案件以及治安案件案发数对一线民警比重没有显著的影响;增加一线民警比重能够显著减少刑事案件相对数,而对治安案件却没有显著影响;此外,警察总量对刑事案件以及治安案件的发生都没有显著影响。进一步研究发现,在经济社会环境不同的地区(例如苏南、苏北),尽管案发绝对数存在显著差异,但是警力与犯罪的相互关系并没有表现出显著的差异。
The article uses the panel data of Jiangsu Province during the “Tenth Five-year Plan” period to carry out an empirical research on police force and crime. Different from the previous literature, we took the first-line civilian police out of the overall police force and concluded that there is a two-way causal relationship between the number of first-line civilian police officers and the crime rate. Through the three-phase least squares estimation of simultaneous equations (3SLS), we find that the number of criminal cases and public order cases has no significant effect on the proportion of first-line civilian police. Increasing the proportion of first-line civilian police can significantly reduce the relative number of criminal cases, Public security cases did not have a significant impact; in addition, the total number of police on criminal cases and law and order cases did not have a significant impact. Further study found that there was no significant difference in the correlation between police force and crime despite the significant difference in the absolute number of cases in different economic and social environments (such as southern Jiangsu and northern Jiangsu).