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利用中国大陆丰富的地震记录,对表征地震能量空间分布局域标度特性的各参量〔1〕及其组合进行系统研究,提炼具有可操作性、能够用于日常地震监测预报的实用方法,特别着重于“异常”划分方式及划分标准的研究。这一划分方式及划分标准对不同地区或不同时段均是“动态”可变的,对所研究的10个区域内发生的中强地震进行回顾性的预报检验,发现对于较短时期(0.5-1.5年),其最大预报评分的平均值介于0.3—0.6之间,明显高于随机应答的概率评分,表明多参数综合使用具有相对强的预报能力
Based on the abundant seismograms in mainland China, we systematically studied the parameters [1] and their combinations that characterize the local scale characteristics of the spatial distribution of seismic energy, and refined the practical methods that can be used for routine earthquake monitoring and forecasting. In particular, Focus on the “anomaly” division and division of standards. This classification and classification criteria are “dynamically” variable for different regions or different time periods. Retrospectively forecasting the moderate-strong earthquakes occurred in the 10 regions studied, we find that for the short period (0. 5-1.5 years). The average value of the maximum forecast score was between 0.3-0.6, which was significantly higher than that of the random response, indicating that the multi-parameter comprehensive use has a relatively strong ability of forecasting