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目的评估2016年12月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往突发公共卫生事件发生情况及传染病流行特点分析,预计12月主要以发生在学校的水痘、流行性感冒、流行性腮腺炎、手足口病、其他感染性腹泻病等传染病暴发事件为主。人感染禽流感散发疫情将逐渐上升;流行性感冒发病水平将继续上升;寨卡病毒病输入我国的风险持续存在,输入后在南方蚊媒条件适宜的地区仍有引发本地传播的风险;病毒性腹泻暴发疫情将持续发生,且诺如病毒仍将为主要致病原。结论预计全国2016年12月全国总报告事件数和病例数将较11月有所下降。需重点关注人感染禽流感、季节性流感、寨卡病毒病和病毒性腹泻等传染病的公共卫生风险。
Objective To assess the public health emergencies at home and abroad in December 2016 and the need to pay attention to the risks of infectious diseases. Methods According to the reports of domestic and foreign public health emergencies and the monitoring of key infectious diseases, the expert consultation method was adopted to invite experts from provincial (municipalities and autonomous regions) CDC to participate in the assessment through video conferencing. Results Based on the recent monitoring data of infectious diseases and public health emergencies and the analysis of the prevalence of public health emergencies and the epidemiological characteristics of infectious diseases in recent years, it is estimated that in December mainly chickenpox, influenza, mumps, Hand-foot-mouth disease, other infectious diarrhea and other infectious diseases outbreaks. The outbreak of human infection of bird flu will gradually increase; the incidence of influenza will continue to rise; the risk of Zika virus entering our country persists and the risk of local transmission may still be caused in areas with suitable mosquito vectors in the south after importation; Outbreaks of diarrhea will continue to occur, and Norovirus will remain the major causative agent. Conclusion It is estimated that the national total number of reported incidents and cases in December 2016 will decline from November. It is important to focus on the public health risks of infectious diseases such as bird flu, seasonal flu, Zika virus and viral diarrhea.