(一)发达国家经济开始进入一个持续的中低速增长时期,在未来几年中,其国内生产总值每年将递增2.5—3%。此判断所依据的理由如下:随冷战结束而来的发达国家经济结构(由军工向民用)之调整接近完成,“和平红利”渐显;西方诸国的通货膨胀率普遍保持低水平(均未超过3%),这既为经济的稳步增长创造了条件,也为刺激经济提供了较大的回旋余地;东亚经济的持续高速增长(在未来的六年中预计年均增长率近8%),从而使世界多了一个推动经济增长的因素;世界贸易组织的建立、尤其是各地区性贸易集团的确立,将有助于经贸的增长;以信息高速公路为标 (1) The developed countries’ economy has begun to enter a period of sustained moderate growth. In the coming years, its GDP will increase by 2.5-3% each year. The reasons for this judgment are as follows: Adjustment of the economic structure of the developed countries (from military to civilian use) that came to an end with the end of the Cold War is nearing completion, and the “dividend of peace” has gradually become softened. Inflation in the West has generally remained low ( All of which have not exceeded 3%). This not only created the conditions for steady economic growth but also provided more room for stimulating the economy. The sustained and rapid growth of East Asia’s economy (an estimated annual average growth rate of nearly 8 in the next six years) %), Thus making the world one more factor in promoting economic growth. The establishment of the WTO, especially the establishment of regional trade blocs, will contribute to the growth of economy and trade. The establishment of an information superhighway