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现在大家对计算技术的发展前景极为关心。表现在组织形式的完善;估计分析范围的扩大;政府机构对预测结果的兴趣的提高和展望未来期更长等。美国兰德公司按美国空军的约定近年来在展望分析计算技术的发展方面进行了大量的工作。在兰德公司的报告里叙述了到1990年通用和军用计算技术的发展。在预测中所提到的数据在国外刊物上引起广泛的讨论,人们对其中的一些定量估计持怀疑态度。因此,有必要对美国人所采用的方法进行分析,并对其所使用的假定条件进行严格的讨论。本文讨论计算机发展前景不仅仅是为了介绍上述兰德公司文章的结果,而且主要的是为了介绍目前评价电子计算机性能的一些方法。
Now everyone is extremely concerned about the prospects for the development of computing technology. Manifested in the improvement of organizational forms; the expansion of the scope of the estimation analysis; the improvement of the interest of the government agencies in the forecast results and the prospect of a longer period in future. According to the agreement of the U.S. Air Force, the U.S. Rand Company has done a great deal of work in the field of the development of analytical computing technology in recent years. In Rand’s report, it describes the development of general and military computing technologies by 1990. The data mentioned in the projections arouse widespread discussion in foreign journals and some are skeptical of some of them. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the methods adopted by Americans and conduct rigorous discussions on the assumptions they use. This article discusses the prospects for computer development not only to introduce the results of the Rand article, but also to introduce some of the current methods of evaluating computer performance.