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石油作为现代工业社会的血液和全球性重要的战略资源,被广泛用于交通运输、化工、医药、制造等各行各业。加强石油资源流动研究,有助于理解石油在产业内部以及其他产业之间的流动过程。石油资源流动分析框架及测算方法研究是开展石油供需研究的基础与前提,同时也是石油产品二氧化碳排放评估研究的基础。鉴于此,本文构建了石油资源流动分析框架,把石油资源产业流动过程划分为4阶段,3种流,3种库和2个过程,归纳总结了石油资源流动测算分析方法。以中国为例开展实证研究,研究结果显示:(1)过去二十年中国石油生产、消费和出口量迅猛增长,快速正价的需求和有限的供应能力导致中国石油进口来源呈现多元化,从而实现国家层面上的石油安全;(2)终端消费掉多数石油产品,应该特别关注石油炼制过程中的损失情况;(3)除去原油,不同部门之间的石油产品流入量已经发展了巨大变化,在交通运输和生活消费部门呈现明显的上升趋势,而工业消费量呈现下降趋势。(4)石油资源流动的CO2排放而言,从1993年的4.56亿t上升到2013年的15.17亿t;与此同时,二氧化碳排放的前三名从工业、运输业(包括运输业、仓储和邮政业)、火力发电业转变为交通运输、工业和生活消费。此外,石油资源产业流动需进一步加强系统边界、数据库和针对非能源消费的石油资源流动模型研究等。
As a blood and a global strategic resource, modern petroleum industry is widely used in transportation, chemical industry, medicine, manufacturing and other industries. Strengthening the research on the flow of petroleum resources will help understand the process of the oil flow within the industry and among other industries. The analysis of petroleum resource flow analysis framework and calculation method is the basis and premise for oil supply and demand research, and also the basis for carbon dioxide emission assessment of petroleum products. In view of this, this paper constructs the analysis framework of petroleum resource flow, and divides the process of petroleum resource industry into four stages, three kinds of flows, three kinds of banks and two processes, summarizes the methods of oil resource flow measurement and analysis. Taking China as an example, the empirical research shows that: (1) China’s oil production, consumption and export volume have been increasing rapidly in the past two decades. The demand for fast forward price and the limited supply capacity have led to the diversification of China’s oil import sources. (2) terminal consumption of most petroleum products should pay particular attention to the loss of oil refining processes; (3) the removal of crude oil, the influx of petroleum products between different sectors has undergone tremendous changes , Showing a clear upward trend in the transport and consumer sectors, while industrial consumption shows a downward trend. (4) CO2 emissions from oil resource flows rose from 456 million tons in 1993 to 1.517 billion tons in 2013; meanwhile, the top three carbon dioxide emissions from industrial and transportation sectors (including transport, storage and Postal industry), thermal power industry into transport, industrial and consumer life. In addition, the flow of oil resources industries need to further strengthen the system boundaries, databases and non-energy consumption of oil resource flow model research.