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江苏所处的中国东部被当代横贯欧亚的北西西向环球螺旋形扭转断裂带（其东段即大别—舟山断裂）分割为南部的褶皱山带隆升区和北部的沉降区。软流圈从太平洋方向面楔入北部区，使该区岩石圈减薄，陆壳向海洋伸展、离裂，产生郯庐断裂等具有直扭性质的近南北向软流（及地幔）底辟，并伴随有多层水平拆离面，所见为高导低速的水平破裂带。绝大多数地震沿着其中埋深１５ｋｍ（±５ｋｍ）的第一水平破裂带发生，使北部区成面积性地震区。结合高压物性实验所得的岩石微破裂规律（…分割—错位—嵌合—再分割…）判断得知，水平破裂带中的膨胀增厚部分的流体处在超压状态而成为储能体，在陆壳伸展运动中会突然释放能量而诱发地震。因此，根据已有实际分析认为：强震和频震区的发展的必要条件是软流楔入和陆壳伸展，而其充分条件是储能体在软流冲击和增温效应下的爆裂或突然塌缩事件。据此可根据软流运动和岩石圈结构预测未来震中，建立中、长期预报甚至短临预报的监控系统
The eastern part of China where Jiangsu is located is divided into a spiral fold belt (the Dabie-Zhoushan fault) in the northwestern direction that runs across Eurasia to the global spiral belt uplift and the northern subsidence area in the south. The asthenosphere is wedged into the northern zone from the Pacific direction and the lithosphere is thinned. The continental crust extends and separates to the ocean, resulting in the near-north-northeastern flow (and mantle) diapirism with straight-twist properties such as the Tan-Lu fault , Accompanied by multi-level horizontal detachment surface, seen as a high-conductivity low-velocity horizontal rupture zone. The vast majority of earthquakes occur along the first horizontal rupture zone where the buried depth is 15km (± 5km), so that the northern area becomes an area of regional seismicity. Combined with the law of micro-rupture of rocks (... split-dislocation-chimeric-subdivision ...) obtained from high-pressure physical experiments, it is known that the fluid in the inflated and thickened part of the horizontal rupture zone becomes an over- Earth's crust can release energy suddenly to induce earthquakes. Therefore, according to the existing practical analysis, it is considered that the necessary conditions for the development of strong earthquakes and frequent earthquakes are the wedge flow and the extension of the continental crust, and the sufficient conditions are that the energy storage body bursts in the impact of soft current and the warming effect Sudden collapse event. According to this, the future epicenter can be predicted according to the soft-flow motion and lithosphere structure, and the monitoring system for mid- and long-term forecasting and even short-term forecasting can be established