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目的 了解福建省恶性肿瘤死亡率变化规律及其趋势。 方法 采用福建省 1986～ 1995年的全死因抽样调查资料对城市和农村的恶性肿瘤死亡率进行流行病学分析 ,并用灰色系统 GM( 1,1)模型对福建省 2 0 0 1年恶性肿瘤流行趋势作出预测。 结果 城市恶性肿瘤死亡率从 1986年的 130 .2 /10万下降到 1995年的 10 9.2 /10万 ,同期农村从 79.9/10万上升到 110 .0 /10万。预测到2 0 0 1年福建省城市和农村恶性肿瘤的死亡率将分别达到 86.1/10万和 14 3.9/10万。 结论 城市恶性肿瘤死亡率呈下降趋势 ,农村恶性肿瘤死亡率呈上升趋势。应重视农村恶性肿瘤的防治。
Objective To understand the changing law and trends of malignant tumor mortality in Fujian Province. Methods The epidemiological analysis of malignant tumor mortality in urban and rural areas was conducted using Fujian Province’s 1986-1995 all-cause sample survey data, and the gray system GM (1,1) model was used to study the prevalence of malignant tumors in Fujian Province in 2001. Trends make predictions. Results The mortality rate of urban malignant tumors dropped from 130.2/100 000 in 1986 to 10 9.2/100 000 in 1995, and the rural area increased from 79.9/100 000 to 110. 0/100 000 in the same period. It is predicted that the mortality rates of urban and rural malignancies in Fujian Province in 2001 will reach 86.1/100,000 and 143.9/100,000, respectively. Conclusion The mortality rate of urban malignant tumors showed a downward trend, and the mortality of rural malignant tumors showed an upward trend. Should pay attention to the prevention and treatment of rural malignant tumors.