通过对我国彩电产业结构成长过程中有效竞争、过量扩张和技术升级三阶段的模型化研究 ,得出 :1在生产能力有限的早期发展阶段 ,各厂商的短期价格竞争是有效的 ,厂商具有兼并扩张动机 ;2过度扩张带来的产能过剩导致产业进入微利或亏损的恶性竞争状态 ;3技术升级使领先企业获取高额利润 ,且转产成本越低 ,高端市场价格弹性越低 ,获利越多 ,而跟随厂商则境况更差。 Through the modeling research on the three stages of effective competition, excessive expansion and technological upgrading in the process of Chinese color TV industry structure growth, we can draw the following conclusions: 1 In the early stage of development with limited production capacity, the short-term price competition of all firms is effective; firms with mergers Expansion of motivation; 2 over-expansion caused by overcapacity led to the industry into a vicious competition or profitability; 3 technology upgrades make leading enterprises to obtain high profits, and the lower the cost of conversion, the lower the high-end market price elasticity, the more profit , While the situation followed the worse vendor.