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加强高压油气井井控风险评价是安全钻井的重要工作之一,也是有效防范、减少和杜绝高压油气井井喷失控事故的基础。针对高压油气井井控风险的特点,提出了11个关键的高压油气井井控风险诱因,并建立了各风险诱因的风险等级评价指标体系。在定量化和归一化井控风险指标的基础上,结合可拓理论建立了基于物元可拓法的高压油气井井控定量评价模型。以罗家16H井为例,提取可拓分析法所需要的诱因参数,运用该模型进行计算分析。结果表明,该井的等级变量特征值为3.54,介于“高度风险”和“极高风险”之间,而偏向“极高风险”。该风险等级评价结果与罗家16H井的实际情况基本相符。该井的主要风险诱因为地层流体、高压、灌浆不足、高产、抽汲等,与事故调查组专家对该井井喷失控原因分析的结论一致。研究表明,该井控风险定量评价模型具有一定的准确性和实用性,可以用于现场高压油气井单井井控风险评价。
It is one of the important work of safety drilling to strengthen the risk control of high pressure well drilling well. It is also the basis of effectively preventing, reducing and eliminating the well blowout accident of high pressure oil well. According to the characteristics of well control risk in high-pressure oil and gas wells, 11 key risk inducement of well control in high-pressure oil and gas well are put forward and the risk rating evaluation index system of each risk inducement is established. On the basis of quantifying and normalizing the well control risk index, combined with extension theory, a quantitative evaluation model for well control of high-pressure oil and gas well based on matter-element extension method is established. Taking Luojia well 16H as an example, the inducing parameters needed by extension analysis are extracted and calculated by the model. The results show that the well has a hierarchical variable eigenvalue of 3.54, which lies between “High Risk ” and “Extremely High Risk ”, and prefers “Extremely High Risk ”. The result of this risk level evaluation is basically in line with the actual situation of Luojia well 16H. The main risk inducement of the well is formation fluid, high pressure, under grouting, high yield, pumping and so on, which is in line with the conclusion of experts in accident investigation group about the cause of well blowout out of control. The research shows that the well control risk quantitative evaluation model has certain accuracy and practicability, and can be used for single well control risk assessment of on-site high-pressure oil and gas wells.