观察中国经济局势,不是一件容易的事:它过于庞大,结构也十分奇特,人们既不能借助于经验、也无法按照理论模式去加以把握,因为它处于迅疾的变化之中。1993年是一个典型的例证,这一年里,发生了戏剧性的变化,局外人眼花缭乱,局内人忽喜忽悲。年初尚是高歌猛进,年中即踩闸减速。房地产业和股市上的发财神话,到了下半年成了无稽之谈。企业产品又开始积压,“三角债”卷土重来。大批工厂停产半停产。物价扶摇直上,居高不下。这些特征加起来,既不像热火朝天的1988年,也不像疲软的1989年。事实上,1993年不能被简单地放进一个陈陈相冈的所谓经济周期中去。 (一) 理解1993年的脉络走向,有一个重要的线索,就是资金的流量与流向。 1992年中国的经济增长率全球第一,达12.8%,所凭借的主要动力,来自投资高速增长。1992年全年的投资比1991年增长了42.6%,这一速度是改革开放以来最快的。专家认为,投资的超高 Observing the economic situation in China is not an easy task: it is too large and the structure is very peculiar. People can neither rely on experience nor grasp the theoretical model because it is undergoing rapid changes. 1993 is a typical example. During this year, dramatic changes have taken place. Outsiders are dazzling and insiders are suddenly flirting with grief. The beginning of the year is still triumphant, that is, in the middle of the treadle deceleration. Real estate and stock market fortune myth, the second half became nonsense. Business products began to backlog, “triangular debt ” comeback. A large number of factory halted production. Price soared, high. These features add up to neither the year 1988 nor the weakened year 1989. In fact, 1993 can not simply be put into the so-called economic cycle of Chen Taoxiang. (1) There is an important clues to understanding the context of 1993: the flow of funds and its flow. In 1992, China’s economic growth rate was the highest in the world at 12.8%. The main driving force behind it came from the rapid investment growth. Investment in the entire year of 1992 increased by 42.6% over 1991, the fastest rate since the reform and opening up. Experts believe that the investment is high