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对信用风险的防范,关键在于事前的预见和事中、事后的风险控制。企业的谨慎举债是防止信用风险、促进债券市场稳健发展的第一道防火墙。在我国债券市场快速发展的同时,信用违约风险日益凸显,各类信用风险事件不断暴露。截至2016年8月,受债券市场环境负面影响,导致300余只债券发行推迟或发行失败。与此同时,2016年年初以来已有近100家中央国企、地方国企、民营企业以及外商独资企业的主体信用评级遭到下调,负面评级事件频发。除了受宏观经济下行影响,企业产能严重过剩、过高的杠杆率、治理机制不完善以及投融资活动现金流枯竭,是信用债违约最主要的微观原因。
The key to guard against credit risk lies in ex ante anticipation and in the eventual and ex post risk control. Cautious corporate debt is to prevent credit risk and promote the sound development of the bond market, the first firewall. Along with the rapid development of China’s bond market, credit default risks have become increasingly prominent, and various types of credit risk incidents continue to be exposed. As of August 2016, due to the negative impact of the bond market environment, more than 300 bond issuances were delayed or the issuance failed. At the same time, the main credit rating of nearly 100 central state-owned enterprises, local state-owned enterprises, private-owned enterprises and wholly foreign-owned enterprises has been lowered since the beginning of 2016, and negative rating events have been frequent. Except for the impact of the macroeconomic downturn, the overcapacity of enterprises, excessive leverage, imperfect governance mechanism and depletion of cash flow from investment and financing activities are the most important micro reasons for the default of credit debts.