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利用弹性半空间模型和岩石圈介质波速模型,计算了1976年龙陵7.3、7.4级地震和1988年澜沧-耿马7.6、7.2级地震2次双震间及对后续地震的应力变化影响,同时对该区未来地震活动性进行了研究。得到以下结论:1龙陵双震属共轭型双震活动,前一次地震的发生对后一次地震有抑制作用;而澜沧-耿马地震则属于牵动型双震活动,澜沧7.6级地震对其后的耿马7.2级地震有一定的触发作用,其库仑应力变化值为0.35bar;2绝大多数后续余震受到了主震的应力触发作用,其中龙陵双震触发效果较明显;3根据震后粘弹性松弛应力场变化得出,现阶段NW向的腾冲-龙陵、永德-勐省以及澜沧东南地区,NE向的瑞丽、镇安、大理、上允、永平等地区地震危险性有所增强,这与该区地震活动性增强相吻合。
Based on the elastic half-space model and lithospheric medium wave velocity model, the influences of the two earthquakes in Longling 7.3 and 7.4 in 1976 and the Lancang-Gengma 7.6 and 7.2 1988 earthquakes in 1988 on the stress changes of subsequent earthquakes are calculated. At the same time, the future seismicity of this area is studied. The following conclusions are obtained: 1) The Longling double-epoch is a conjugate double-tremor activity, the occurrence of the previous earthquake has an inhibitory effect on the latter earthquakes; while the Lancang-Gengma earthquake belongs to the action-type double earthquakes. The Lancashian MS7.6 earthquake After the Gengma M 7.2 earthquake has a certain trigger, the Coulomb stress change value of 0.35bar; 2 most of the subsequent aftershocks by the main shock stress triggering, Longling double shock which trigger effect is obvious; 3 According to the change of viscoelastic relaxation stress field after the earthquake, it is concluded that the NE trending Tengchong-Longling, Yongde-Mengxi and Southeast Lancang regions, the NE-trending Ruili, Zhen’an, Dali, Shangyun and Yongping regions Increased risk, which is consistent with the increased seismicity in the area.